霧峰追風者

  輕度颱風  
編號：1827 ( 32 W )
名稱：桔梗 ( Toraji )


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2018 年 11 月 11 日 10 時
升格熱低日期：2018 年 11 月 16 日 18 時
命名日期　　：2018 年 11 月 17 日 18 時
停編日期　　：2018 年 11 月 18 日 14 時
JTWC二次升格:2018 年 11 月 20 日 14 時
撤編日期　　：2018 年 11 月 23 日 07 時
登陸地點　　：越南 泰國

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB)：20 m/s ( 8 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：18 m/s ( 35 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：30 kts ( TD )

海平面最低氣壓與暴風半徑
海平面最低氣壓：1002 百帕
七級風半徑　　：080 公里
十級風半徑　　：000 公里

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
91W.INVEST.15kts-1006mb-6.7N-128.2E


以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

霧峰追風者

JTWC 19Z評級LOW

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.2N
114.2E, APPROXIMATELY 451 NM EAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH PATCHES
OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING AND PARTIALLY OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 151344Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS SOME SLIGHT SURFACE WRAPPING WITH SCATTERED MID-LEVEL
CONVECTION. 91W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT
WITH HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 30 CELSIUS), EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND VERY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL TRACK GENERALLY
WEST, BUT DISAGREE ON WHETHER IT WILL INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

t02436

13Z評級提升到Medium

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.5N 113.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 112.8E, APPROXIMATELY
351 NM EAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY AND A 160919Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AND
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION(LLC) WITH TWO POSSIBLE
SPINNERS. FORMATIVE BUT SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE
BEGINNING TO FEED INTO THE LLC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. A RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT PASS INDICATES A
BROAD, ELONGATED WAVE LIKE FEATURE WITH A SMALL SWATH OF 15-20 KNOT
WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30
CELSIUS) REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL TRACK IN A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY BUT DISAGREE
ON THE TIMING AND OVERALL INTENSITY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

周子堯@FB

JTWC 22Z發布TCFA。

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.1N 112.8E TO 10.2N 106.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 161800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.8N 112.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.5N 113.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 112.3E, APPROXIMATELY
330 NM EAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH FORMATIVE BANDING FEATURES. A 161938Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE
ALSO SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC ALONG WITH LOWER LEVEL
BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM. 91W IS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 26 TO 28
DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91W
WILL TRACK WEST TOWARDS VIETNAM AND QUICKLY INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

周子堯@FB

JMA亦於18Z升格TD。

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 11N 113E WNW SLOWLY.

t02436

CMA升格TD16

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 170000
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 16 INITIAL TIME 170000 UTC
00HR 9.3N 113.5E 1006HPA 14M/S
MOVE WNW 13KM/H
P+12HR 9.8N 112.0E 1005HPA 16M/S
P+24HR 10.3N 110.2E 1003HPA 18M/S
P+36HR 10.3N 109.4E 1005HPA 16M/S
P+48HR 9.9N 108.0E 1007HPA 12M/S=
NNNN

JMA發布Warning

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA
AT 10.8N 111.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

king111807

JMA升格為今年第27號颱風"桔梗"

台風第27号 (トラジー)
平成30年11月17日19時00分 発表

<17日18時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        南シナ海
中心位置        北緯 11度25分(11.4度)
東経 111度20分(111.3度)
進行方向、速さ        西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧        1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
15m/s以上の強風域        北西側 170km(90NM)
南東側 110km(60NM)

<18日18時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        南シナ海
予報円の中心        北緯 11度25分(11.4度)
東経 109度40分(109.7度)
進行方向、速さ        西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        90km(50NM)

周子堯@FB

JMA、CWB 20時正報首報~

輕度颱風　編號第27號
國際命名  TORAJI  中文譯名  桔梗
》現況
2018年11月17日20時
      中心位置　北緯 11.50 度　東經 110.30 度
      過去移動方向   西北
      過去移動時速   29 公里
      中心氣壓   1002 百帕
      近中心最大風速 18 公尺/秒
      瞬間之最大陣風 25 公尺/秒
      七級風半徑80公里

台風第27号 (トラジー)
平成30年11月17日21時50分 発表
<17日21時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        南シナ海
中心位置        北緯 11度10分(11.2度)
        東経 110度40分(110.7度)
進行方向、速さ        西南西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
15m/s以上の強風域        北西側 170km(90NM)
        南東側 110km(60NM)
<18日21時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        南シナ海
予報円の中心        北緯 10度55分(10.9度)
        東経 109度05分(109.1度)
進行方向、速さ        西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        90km(50NM)
<19日21時の予報>
強さ        -
        熱帯低気圧
存在地域        ベトナム
予報円の中心        北緯 10度00分(10.0度)
        東経 105度50分(105.8度)
進行方向、速さ        西南西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧        1008hPa
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)