霧峰追風者

  輕度颱風  
編號：1725 ( 31 W )
名稱：鴻雁 ( Kirogi )

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2017 年 11 月 15 日 03 時
升格熱低日期：2017 年 11 月 16 日 21 時
命名日期　　：2017 年 11 月 18 日 05 時
停編日期　　：2017 年 11 月 19 日 02 時
登陸地點　　：菲律賓 南部群島 - 熱帶低壓時期

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB)：18 m/s ( 8 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：18 m/s ( 35 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：40 kts ( TS )

海平面最低氣壓與暴風半徑
海平面最低氣壓：998 百帕
七級風半徑　　： 80  公里
十級風半徑　　：---- 公里

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
90W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-3.3N-135.4E


以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

霧峰追風者

JTWC 15Z評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.0N
132.0E, APPROXIMATELY 355NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MINDANAO ISLAND.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING BROADLY INTO THE SLOWLY DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 150938Z SSMIS 91GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE
SHOWS AN EXPOSED, WEAKLY-DEFINED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE WEST QUADRANT. A 151221Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A
BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ISOLATED OVER THE WEST
QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ACROSS MINDANAO ISLAND WITH WEAK
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER WATER WEST OF MINDANAO
AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

ben811018

目前在菲律賓東南方有個熱帶擾動９０Ｗ正在發展，屬於東風波系統，過去一段時間沿著太平洋高壓邊緣往西移動，已抵達菲律賓近海，即將橫越，預估進入南海後將會進一步增強成為熱帶性低氣壓或颱風，對台灣不會有直接影響。

預估９０Ｗ進入南海後繼續往西進行，朝越南及泰國接近。

至於外圍水氣是否跟前幾個颱風一樣北飄至台灣？這部分還要觀察他的發展位置，目前來看，９０Ｗ位置較南邊，外圍水氣上來的情況較輕微，對台灣的天氣影響也不大。

霧峰追風者

JTWC 19Z評級提升Medium,接近菲中群島。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.0N 132.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 128.8E, APPROXIMATELY 350
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD BUT
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 151731Z SSMI
85GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE WEST QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS MINDANAO ISLAND. LAND INTERATION WILL PREVENT SUBSTANTIAL
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER WATER WEST OF MINDANAO
AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

JMA ：低壓區。

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 06N 129E WEST SLOWLY.

有機會在17日升格熱帶低壓。

t02436

JMA發布GW

熱帯低気圧
平成29年11月16日22時25分 発表

<16日21時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        セレベス海
中心位置        北緯 7度20分(7.3度)
東経 123度20分(123.3度)
進行方向、速さ        西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧        1008hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<17日09時の予報>
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        スル海
予報円の中心        北緯 8度10分(8.2度)
東経 120度35分(120.6度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 25km/h(14kt)
中心気圧        1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径        110km(60NM)

<17日21時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        南シナ海
予報円の中心        北緯 9度05分(9.1度)
東経 117度30分(117.5度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 30km/h(16kt)
中心気圧        1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)

周子堯@FB

21Z發TCFA

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.7N 121.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 120.8E, APPROXIMATELY
175NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WIDESPREAD AREA OF
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT IS BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE WEST OF
MINDANAO. A 161800Z HIMAWARI INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS
INCREASING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MODERATE AMOUNT OF
WIND SHEAR (5-20 KNOTS). EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS FAVORABLE.  POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS MODERATELY FAVORABLE BUT WILL HAVE LIMITED INTERACTION
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM, WHICH WILL LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 27-28 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL
NUMERICAL MODELS FORECAST 90W TO PROPAGATE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE SULU SEA AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. 90W
WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN WATER WITH
FAVORABLE TO MODERATE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

周子堯@FB

JTWC 15z升格為31W，巔峰上看45kt

霧峰追風者

JTWC 18Z率先升格"TS"