美國方面發了GW但不認為會是熱帶氣旋。
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW N OF AREA. TROUGH FROM 30N164E TO 29N160E MOVING SE 10 KT.
S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 35 KT N OF 27N BETWEEN 167E AND 171E.
ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS N OF A LINE FROM 25N174E TO
22N160E...AND FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 174E AND 177E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 27N164E 1004 MB. SECONDARY LOW 27N170E
1005 MB. WINDS 20 TO 35 KT WITHIN 240 NM S QUADRANT OF FIRST
LOW. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITHIN 360 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF SECOND LOW.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONSOLIDATED LOW 26N169E 996 MB. WINDS 30 TO
40 KT WITHIN 240 NM NE THROUGH S QUADRANTS. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 600 NM NE SEMICIRCLE AND 420 NM S SEMICIRCLE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
26.7N 159.4E, APPROXIMATELY 597 NM NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE AND AN AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT
UNORGANIZED AND SHALLOW CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 310304Z
METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED AND DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION
CENTER ARE AROUND 5-15 KNOTS WINDS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A REGION OF
GRADIENT INDUCED WINDS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM SOUTH OF THE LLCC OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS THAT DO NOT APPEAR TO BE WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE DISTURBANCE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
GOOD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD AND DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEYOND
24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
提升卡
千斤頂
