W環

今天風切的問題有所改善

t02436

NHC 03Z降TD，09Z再調降強度至25節，並不再看好短期內重回熱帶風暴。

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 110834
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Adrian Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012017
400 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017


The cloud pattern has deteriorated significantly, and it now
consists of a broad swirl of low clouds. Most of the convection is
well removed to the north and is already over the coast of Mexico. I
was tempted to declare the system dissipated at this time and issue
the last advisory. However, it is prudent to confirm the rapid
weakening with early visible images, and also to be sure that
convection does not redevelop near the center.

The GFS insists on intensification, but the ECMWF dissipates the
system quickly. A compromise between these two models is to keep a
weak and shallow remnant low drifting west-northwestward and then
westward within the low-level flow for the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0900Z 10.9N  93.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
12H  11/1800Z 11.3N  94.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H  12/0600Z 12.0N  95.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  12/1800Z 12.5N  96.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  13/0600Z 12.5N  96.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  14/0600Z 12.5N  97.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  15/0600Z 12.5N  97.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  16/0600Z 12.5N  97.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

W環

Adrain FW

WTPN31 PHNC 111600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ADRIAN) WARNING NR 008   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111200Z --- NEAR 11.1N 93.6W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N 93.6W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 11.8N 94.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 12.5N 95.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 13.0N 96.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 13.4N 97.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 13.0N 98.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 12.5N 98.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 12.5N 98.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    ---
REMARKS:
111600Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 93.9W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ADRIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1832 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z
IS 8 FEET.
//