W環

命名DONNA

krichard2011

補上FMS第一報 報文
目前上看 80 KT
似乎有開始整合底層結構的跡象

1. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
   
2. May 030836 UTC.
   
3. 
   
4. TROPICAL CYCLONE DONNA CENTRE 994HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 171.2E AT
   
5. 030600 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND VIS IMAGERY
   
6. AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING ESE 02KTS.  MAXIMUM
   
7. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS.
   
8. 
   
9. ORGANIZATION GOOD WITH PRIMARY BAND WRAPPING INTO LLCC. CONVECTION
   
10. REMAINS PERSISTANT. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A UPPER RIDGE IN LOW SHEARED
    
11. ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
    
12. CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
    
13. PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH.
    
14. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH 0.65 WRAP ON LOG 10
    
15. SPIRAL, YIELDS DT=3.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS
    
16. YIELDING,
    
17. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS
    
18. 
    
19. FORECASTS :
    
20. AT 12 HRS VALID AT 031800 UTC 13.3S 170.7E MOV WSW AT 03 KT WITH 60
    
21. KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
    
22. AT 24 HRS VALID AT 040600 UTC 13.7S 169.7E MOV WSW AT 04 KT WITH 70
    
23. KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
    
24. 
    
25. OUTLOOK :
    
26. AT 36 HRS VALID AT 041800 UTC 14.1S 168.7E MOV WSW AT 04 KT WITH 75
    
27. KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
    
28. AT 48 HRS VALID AT 050600 UTC 14.5S 167.6E MOV WSW AT 05 KT WITH 80
    
29. KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
    
30. 
    
31. THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE DONNA WILL
    
32. BE ISSUED AROUND 031400 UTC.
    
33. 
    
34. 
    

複製代碼

W環

看起來即將捲成一圈了，帶著旋臂。

s6815711

結構愈來愈好
JTWC將強度上望C3
北方的OHC含量真的非常驚人

W環

倒是高層的反氣旋一直在它的東面，風切一直處於中等的水平。

NET

    這高層反氣旋似乎是對應跨赤道氣流和信風的切變式輻合而生，而Donna是其中誕生的最強氣旋式輻合。只是不知道為啥高層反氣旋反而坐落在東邊= =
    雖然赤向流出似乎被壓制，但這是同一低壓槽催生的高層反氣旋；這對強度影響可能不大。

t02436

FMS 00Z升格四級強烈熱帶氣旋，06Z維持90節評價。

WTPS11 NFFN 060600
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A14 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
May 060724 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DONNA CENTRE 961HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3S
163.9E AT 060600 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE WEST AT ABOUT 03
KTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 90 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REDUCED IN RADIAL EXTENT DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
FROM EAST. ORGANIZATION REMAINS GOOD. SYSTEM LIES JUST NORTH OF AN
UPPER RIDGE IN MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM STEERED WEST SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTER WITH LG SURROUND, YIELDS DT=4.5, MET AND PT
5.0. FT BASED ON MET. THUS YIELDING, T5.0/5.5/D0.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 061800 UTC 13.8S 163.7E MOV SSW AT 02 KT WITH 85
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 070600 UTC 14.6S 163.7E MOV S AT 03 KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 15.7S 163.8E MOV S AT 04 KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 16.9S 164.1E MOV S AT 05 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DONNA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 061400 UTC.

JTWC評價80節，但巔峰仍上望110節。

tpm630

西側外圍環境持續偏乾，特別是中層大氣
乾空氣旋入導致東側眼牆縫縫補補，這也是系統過去一直增強不快的原因
模式認為未來幾天乾空氣的情況有改善的跡象，配合中緯度系統加強外流
在海溫和垂直風切允許前 還是有機會增強到C4上下