A weak tropical low, 1007 hPa, is located in the Arafura Sea, near 7.5S, 137.5E, about 530 km north of Nhulunbuy at 12:30pm CST on 23 April 2017. The tropical low is expected to take a southwest track across the Arafura Sea and slowly develop during the coming days with an increasing risk that it could reach cyclone strength on Wednesday.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Monday : Low.
Tuesday : Low.
Wednesday : Moderate.
In the longer term the low is forecast to move into the Timor Sea towards the end of the week.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.3S 134.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4S 132.5E, APPROXIMATELY 275
NM NORTH OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTING
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER. A 251324Z AMSU-B METOP-
A 89GHZ MICROWAVE PARTIAL PASS SHOWS SHALLOW CONVECTION LOCATED OVER
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A
MARGINAL BUT IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25
KNOTS), THAT IS BEING OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
AS TO WHEN AND HOW STRONGLY THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING
ENVIRONMENT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.4S 132.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1S 130.4E, APPROXIMATELY 265
NM NORTH OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
CONSTANT CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND A MOSTLY CIRCULAR
SHAPE. A 252209Z SSMIS 91GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE PASS AND A 251946Z
GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOW DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT HAS RAPIDLY BECOME LESS AND
LESS ELONGATED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN A MARGINAL BUT IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KNOTS), THAT IS BEING OFFSET BY STRONG
POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(30-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AND ARE SHOWING INTENSIFICATION AND CONSOLIDATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 10.1 degrees South, 129.4 degrees East , 185 kilometres northwest of Pirlangimpi and 555 kilometres north northeast of Kalumburu .
Movement: west southwest at 16 kilometres per hour .
Tropical Cyclone Frances is expected to intensify as it moves southwest through the Timor Sea. It is not expected to cause gales in coastal areas on Friday however if it takes a more southerly track gales may commence on the north Kimberley coast on Saturday
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