0908morakot

  三級強烈熱帶氣旋   
編號：20 F ( 16 P )
名稱：Cook

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2017 年 04 月 05 日 22 時
JTWC升格日期:2017 年 04 月 08 日 08 時
命名日期　　：2017 年 04 月 08 日 20 時
撤編日期　　：2017 年 04 月 12 日 21 時
登陸地點　　：新喀里多尼亞

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 /海平面最低氣壓
斐濟氣象局 (FMS) :  85 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC): 85 kt ( Cat.2 )
海平面最低氣壓    ：970 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料     
95P.INVEST.15kts.1005mb.12.1S.176.1E


以上資料來自：FMS、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

W環

JTWC 評Medium

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.9S 171.6E, APPROXIMATELY 490 NM NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURES WITH ROBUST OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. A 061612Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THE EXTENT OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDING TO BE
SOMEWHAT SHALLOW, WITH AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
ORGANIZING RATHER QUICKLY. THE CIMSS 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY
PRODUCT ALSO SHOWS INCREASED VORTICITY WITH IMPROVED SYMMETRY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER AN AREA
OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 CELSIUS, AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS FAVORABLE (10 TO 15 KNOTS). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
THE SYSTEM MOVING GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WITH STEADY
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DUE TO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

W環

JTWC: TCFA

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.9S 171.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2S 172.0E, APPROXIMATELY
455 NM NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 070311Z SSMI 37GHZ DEPICT DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION
AND FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE ABOUT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
RADIAL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY A POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, LIGHT
(10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 CELSIUS. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS
THIS SYSTEM IN A SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

周子堯@FB

升級了!初報估計顛峰90KTS!

Meow

命名Cook，預測二級熱帶氣旋登陸新喀里多尼亞。

1. WTPS01 NFFN 081200
   
2. STORM WARNING 022  ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 081304 UTC.
   
3. 
   
4. TROPICAL CYCLONE COOK CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6
   
5. SOUTH 167.4 EAST AT 081200 UTC.
   
6. POSITION POOR.
   
7. REPEAT POSITION 16.6S 167.4E at 081200 UTC.
   
8. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
   
9. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
   
10. 50 KNOTS BY 091200 UTC.
    
11. 
    
12. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
    
13.                        AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
    
14.                        AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
    
15.                        AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
    
16. 
    
17. FORECAST POSITION NEAR 17.7S 167.0E AT 090000 UTC
    
18.               AND NEAR 18.6S 166.4E AT 091200 UTC.
    
19. 
    
20. ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
    
21. REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
    
22. NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
    
23. AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ
    
24. 
    
25. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 021.

複製代碼

krichard2011

眼牆大致已逐漸成形
強度已達到澳式C3 穩定增強中

1. HURRICANE WARNING 026 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 091312 UTC.
   
2. 
   
3. SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE COOK CENTRE 975HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4
   
4. SOUTH 166.7 EAST AT 091200 UTC.
   
5. POSITION FAIR.
   
6. REPEAT POSITION 18.4S 166.7E at 091200 UTC.
   
7. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 8 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
   
8. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
   
9. INCREASING TO 70 KNOTS BY 101200 UTC.
   
10. 
    
11. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
    
12. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
    
13. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
    
14.                        AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
    
15.                        AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
    
16.                        AND WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
    
17. 
    
18. FORECAST POSITION NEAR 19.7S 166.0E AT 100000 UTC
    
19.               AND NEAR 21.3S 165.9E AT 101200 UTC.
    
20. 
    
21. ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
    
22. EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
    
23. VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ
    
24. 
    
25. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 025.

複製代碼