0908morakot

  中度熱帶風暴  
編號：07-20162017 ( 11 S )
名稱：Fernando

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2017 年 03 月 03 日 18 時
JTWC升格日期:2017 年 03 月 09 日 02 時
命名日期　　：2017 年 03 月 14 日 20 時
撤編日期　　：2017 年 03 月 16 日 06 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
法國氣象局(MFR)：35 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：35 kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓： 993 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  討論帖圖片  
97S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.7.7S.84.2E


以上資料來自：MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

s6815711

03Z評級提升至Low

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.4S 81.5E, APPROXIMATELY 615 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 042054Z AMSU-
B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW DISORGANIZED BUT PERSISTENT CONVECTION
TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28 C) AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-15 KNOTS). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH INTENSIFICATION OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

s6815711

JTWC 10Z發佈TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 070430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.0S 75.7E TO 16.3S 69.3E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 070400Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 74.9E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.8S 76.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 74.9E, APPROXIMATELY 515
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 070054Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC WITH A DEFINED CENTER. THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C), AND A NARROW REGION OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM
TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD WHILE CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

t02436

JTWC升格11S


MFR準備命名

ZCZC 346
WTIO30 FMEE 081929 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/7/20162017
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION  7
2.A POSITION 2017/03/08 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 70.0 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY    DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 200 SW: 190 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2017/03/09 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 68.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2017/03/09 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2017/03/10 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
48H: 2017/03/10 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 66.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2017/03/11 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2017/03/11 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 60.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2017/03/12 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 54.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2017/03/13 18 UTC: 29.4 S / 54.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=2.5
NNNN

jwpk9899

中心裸露嚴重 命名可能沒這麼容易吧

Meow

法國再度發報，美國撤太早。

Meow

最後關頭命名Fernando，但不到12小時就要轉化。

1. WTIO30 FMEE 141244
   
2. 
   
3. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
   
4. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
   
5. 
   
6. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/7/20162017
   
7. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FERNANDO)
   
8. 
   
9. 2.A POSITION 2017/03/14 AT 1200 UTC:
   
10. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.6 S / 52.7 E
    
11. (TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
    
12. MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT
    
13. 
    
14. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H
    
15. 
    
16. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
    
17. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
    
18. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM
    
19. 
    
20. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
    
21. 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 370 SW: 330 NW: 0
    
22. 34 KT NE: 90 SE: 260 SW: 190 NW: 0
    
23. 
    
24. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
    
25. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
    
26. 
    
27. 1.B FORECASTS:
    
28. 12H: 2017/03/15 00 UTC: 31.2 S / 51.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
    
29. 24H: 2017/03/15 12 UTC: 34.1 S / 51.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
    
30. 36H: 2017/03/16 00 UTC: 37.7 S / 52.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
    
31. 48H: 2017/03/16 12 UTC: 42.2 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, DISSIPATING
    
32. 
    
33. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
    
34. 
    
35. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
    
36. T=CI=2.5+
    
37. 
    
38. VERY COLD DEEP CONVECTION HAS MAINTAINED BETWEEN 0600Z AND 1000Z OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. MINIMAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 993 HPA THANKS TO THE BUOY NR 1600516 WHILE MAXIMAL WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 35 KT THANKS TO THE DATA AT 1200Z FROM SHIP VRYP6. ACCORDING WITH THESE OBSERVED DATA, THE SYSTEM IS RAISED AT THE STAGE OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AND NAMED FERNANDO.
    
39. 
    
40. BUT, SINCE 1000Z, THE CENTRE HAS BECOME MORE AND MORE EXPOSED DUE TO THE INCREASING NORTHWESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WHILE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME LESS INTENSE DUE TO DRY AIR ASSOCIATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED WEST OF THE CIRCULATION.
    
41. THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO TRACK SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEFORE TO CURVE PROGRESSIVELY TOWARD THE SOUTHSOUTHEAST FROM THURSDAY.
    
42. 
    
43. ON THIS TRACK, THE SYSTEM BENEFITS FROM A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE NORTHWESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS NOW VERY STROND AHEAD THE AFOREMENTIONNED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS NIGHT, THE MINIMUM SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC AREA AND LOOSE PROGRESSIVELY ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THURSDAY, THE MINIMUM IS FORESCATED TO MERGE WITH A WIDE MID-LATITUDES TROUGH.

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