IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0145 UTC 05/03/2017
Name: Tropical Cyclone Blanche
Identifier: 20U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 11.9S
Longitude: 130.3E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [231 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 993 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.024HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 05/0600: 12.3S 129.8E: 040 [080]: 040 [075]: 993
+12: 05/1200: 12.7S 129.4E: 055 [100]: 045 [085]: 990
+18: 05/1800: 13.0S 128.9E: 065 [125]: 050 [095]: 987
+24: 06/0000: 13.4S 128.3E: 080 [145]: 055 [100]: 984
+36: 06/1200: 14.6S 127.4E: 100 [180]: 045 [085]: 987
+48: 07/0000: 15.8S 126.3E: 120 [220]: 030 [055]: 999
+60: 07/1200: 16.6S 124.8E: 140 [255]: 025 [045]: 1001
+72: 08/0000: 16.8S 123.5E: 155 [290]: 025 [045]: 1001
+96: 09/0000: 17.6S 121.8E: 200 [370]: 025 [045]: 1001
+120: 10/0000: 19.0S 121.2E: 290 [535]: 025 [045]: 1003
REMARKS:
The system centre is currently difficult to locate. Position based largely on
surface observations over the Tiwi Islands and surrounding area, satellite
imagery, radar and persistence in past motion.
Satellite imagery during the last 3-6 hours has shown continued bursts of
convection close to but just west of the low level circulation centre [LLCC],.
Dvorak intensity at 00Z is based on MET=3.0 using a D trend [no adjustment to
MET made] as DT was not clear cut - a weak curved band of 0.6 wrap yielded DT
3.0. System intensity is set at 35 knots.
Recent motion has been to the SW at 6 knots. Forecast motion is for the low to
continue to the SW during the next few days under the steering influence of a
mid level ridge to the northeast and another to the southwest. NWP is in fair
agreement with the forecast track, with the system crossing the north Kimberley
coast Monday evening.
The low is located under the upper ridge, which is providing excellent outflow
from the NW to SW to S quadrants. CIMSS indicates the low is still under the
influence of moderate 15-20 knots E wind shear. However during the last 24 hours
the low has developed at the standard rate, indicating the outflow is offsetting
any negative effects from the shear.
As the low moves SW it remains under the upper ridge and so the system is
forecast to develop at the standard rate, reaching category 2 intensity at
landfall over the Kimberley. A faster intensification rate cannot be ruled out.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 05/0800 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0139 UTC 06/03/2017
Name: Tropical Cyclone Blanche
Identifier: 20U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 14.0S
Longitude: 128.2E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [216 deg]
Speed of Movement: 9 knots [17 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 988 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 75 nm [140 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 06/0600: 14.5S 127.8E: 040 [080]: 055 [100]: 984
+12: 06/1200: 15.0S 127.5E: 055 [100]: 045 [085]: 986
+18: 06/1800: 15.4S 127.0E: 065 [125]: 030 [055]: 994
+24: 07/0000: 16.0S 126.4E: 080 [145]: 030 [055]: 997
+36: 07/1200: 16.7S 124.8E: 100 [185]: 020 [035]: 1002
+48: 08/0000: 16.7S 123.8E: 120 [220]: 020 [035]: 1001
+60: 08/1200: 17.0S 122.4E: 140 [255]: 020 [035]: 1002
+72: 09/0000: 17.3S 121.6E: 155 [290]: 020 [035]: 1001
+96: 10/0000: 18.6S 120.2E: 200 [370]: 020 [035]: 1002
+120: 11/0000: 19.7S 119.4E: 290 [535]: 020 [035]: 1004
REMARKS:
LLCC has now moved into range of the Wyndham radar which is allowing a good fix
on the location of Tropical Cyclone Blanche.
The system showed improved organisation overnight on satellite imagery as shear
decreased. Dvorak intensity at 00Z is based on MET of 3.5 with a D- trend as DT
not clear.
Recent motion has been to the SW at 9 knots. Forecast motion is for the system
to continue tracking to the SW under the steering influence of a mid level ridge
to the northeast. NWP is in good agreement with the forecast track, with the
system crossing the north Kimberley coast early Monday afternoon, WA time, as a
Category 2 system.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 06/0800 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0727 UTC 06/03/2017
Name: Tropical Cyclone Blanche
Identifier: 20U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 14.9S
Longitude: 127.4E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [216 deg]
Speed of Movement: 10 knots [19 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: N/A
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 06/1200: 15.4S 127.0E: 040 [080]: 030 [055]: 988
+12: 06/1800: 15.8S 126.5E: 055 [100]: 025 [045]: 993
+18: 07/0000: 16.3S 125.9E: 065 [125]: 020 [035]: 997
+24: 07/0600: 16.8S 125.1E: 080 [145]: 020 [035]: 1000
+36: 07/1800: 17.0S 123.8E: 100 [185]: 020 [035]: 1002
+48: 08/0600: 17.3S 122.7E: 120 [220]: 020 [035]: 1001
+60: 08/1800: 17.5S 121.5E: 140 [255]: 020 [035]: 1001
+72: 09/0600: 17.9S 120.7E: 155 [290]: 020 [035]: 1001
+96: 10/0600: 19.2S 119.3E: 200 [370]: 020 [035]: 1003
+120: 11/0600: 20.6S 119.1E: 290 [535]: 020 [035]: 1003
REMARKS:
LLCC evident on radar, continuing to track inland after crossing the coast at
03Z today.
Dvorak analysis unavailable due to system being located over land.
Recent motion has been to the SW at 10 knots. NWP guidance shows system becoming
increasingly sheared from this evening as the middle-level circulation moves
southwest more rapidly than the LLCC. Although the LLCC is expected to track
west towards the coast again mid-week, the shear and the influence of dry air
are expected to prevent redevelopment.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 06/1400 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
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