tontonyua

  熱帶氣旋  
編號：05-20162017 ( 05 S )
名稱：Dineo

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2017 年 02 月 11 日 08 時
JTWC升格日期:2017 年 02 月 13 日 20 時
命名日期　　：2017 年 02 月 13 日 20 時
撤編日期　　：2017 年 02 月 17 日 07 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
法國留尼旺氣象局 (MFR) ：65 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：70 kts ( Cat.1 )
海平面最低氣壓   ：974 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  討論帖圖片  
98S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.18.5S.40.7E

98S

以上資料來自：MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

s6815711

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：98 S
擾動編號日期：2017 年 02 月 11 日 08 時
消散日期　　：2017 年 02 月 00 日 00 時
98S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.18.5S.40.7E

s6815711

JTWC 評級直接提升至Medium

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
20.7S 39.6E, APPROXIMATELY 530 NM NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING. A
120641Z METOP-B 89GHZ COMPOSITE REVEALS A DEFINED, COMPACT LLCC WITH
MULTIPLE SHALLOW BANDS WRAPPING INTO A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CENTER.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES
OF 30C ARE VERY FAVORABLE. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SOUTHWESTWRAD TRACK
WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

tontonyua

評級繼續提升
JTWC:TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 121300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.5S 40.4E TO 23.2S 37.9E WITHIN
THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 121230Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 21.0S 40.1E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:  THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 20.7S 39.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.0S 40.1E, APPROXIMATELY 505
NM NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER.
A 120930Z GCOM-W1 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS AN IMPRESSIVE, WELL-ORGANIZED
LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A COMPACT CORE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES OF 30C ARE VERY FAVORABLE.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SOUTHWESTWRAD TRACK WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
131300Z.//
NNNN

t02436

MFR編號熱帶擾動第5號，上望STS，預測以巔峰莫三比克。

ZCZC 399
WTIO30 FMEE 130028 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/5/20162017
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE  5
2.A POSITION 2017/02/13 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.3 S / 40.7 E
(TWENTY ONE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY    DECIMAL
SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : NORTH-EAST 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2017/02/13 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 40.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
24H: 2017/02/14 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 39.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2017/02/14 12 UTC: 22.8 S / 39.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2017/02/15 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 38.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2017/02/15 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 36.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2017/02/16 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 35.5 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2017/02/17 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 33.7 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=1.5+
NNNN

t02436

直接命名Dineo，上望TC。

** WTIO30 FMEE 131403 RRA ***
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/5/20162017
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  5  (DINEO)
2.A POSITION 2017/02/13 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 40.0 E
(TWENTY ONE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY    DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 170 SW: 90 NW: 60
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2017/02/14 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 39.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2017/02/14 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 38.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2017/02/15 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 37.5 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2017/02/15 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 36.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2017/02/16 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 34.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, INLAND
72H: 2017/02/16 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 33.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, INLAND
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

** WTIO30 FMEE 131403 RRB ***
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINED STRONG NEAR THE
CENTER, THANKS TO AN EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. LAST AVAILABLE DATA FROM THIS MORNING ASCAT
SWATHS, SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WAS CLOSE TO THE MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM INTENSITY. BECAUSE OF THE IMPROVEMENT ON LAST SATELLITE
IMAGERY, THE STORM WAS BAPTISED DINEO AT 12Z. 43KT 10MIN WIND ARE
ALREADY MEASURED ON EUROPA ISLAND, CONFIRMING A POTENTIAL ONGOING
RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE, FAVOURED BY ITS SMALL SIZE.
TOMMORROW, WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN ITS SOUTH-EAST, THE SYSTEM IS
LIKELY TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST. MOST OF NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SHARE THIS TRACK PHILOSOPHY. AT 48H RANGE, A LANDFALL IS
EXPECTED NEAR INHAMBANE IN MOZAMBIQUE. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY,
CONCERNING THE LOCATION OF THIS POTENTIAL LANDFALL, WITH ACCURACY
AROUND 400KM.
ALONG THIS TRACK, MOST ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS (ATMOSPHERIC AND
OCEANIC) ARE VERY CONDUCIVE FOR A DEEPENING OF DINEO. A STRONG AND
CONTINUOUS INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL ITS POSSIBLE LANDFALL=

tontonyua

JTWC預報圖自動更新（可能需要刷新頁面才能更新到最新）

t02436

18Z預報巔峰上望90節，00Z雖小降到85節，但仍看好達到ITC。

ZCZC 655
WTIO30 FMEE 140012 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/5/20162017
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  5  (DINEO)
2.A POSITION 2017/02/14 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.5 S / 39.4 E
(TWENTY ONE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE
DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SW: 110 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2017/02/14 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 39.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2017/02/15 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 38.1 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2017/02/15 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 36.7 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2017/02/16 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 35.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, INLAND
60H: 2017/02/16 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 33.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, INLAND
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-
NNNN