B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.2N
135.6E, APPROXIMATELY 60 NM EAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PERIPHERIES. A 020041Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING DISPLACED OVER THE WEST QUADRANT
OF LLCC AND ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LARGE SYSTEM WITH SOME
SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAKLY-DEFINED CENTER JUST EAST OF
PALAU. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM KOROR, PALAU REVEAL A SLP VALUE OF
1005MB WITH A 2.3MB 24-HOUR DECREASE IN SLP. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE, EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.2N 135.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.4N 133.1E, APPROXIMATELY 105
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
AN AREA OF EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST.
A 030114Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A WEAKLY DEFINED LLCC WITH
ISOLATED, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE WEST QUADRANT. A 030020Z
ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH 15 TO
20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
KOROR, PALAU REVEAL A SLP VALUE NEAR 1004MB WITH A 1.2MB 24-HOUR
DECREASE IN SLP. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY
STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SLOW
DEVELOPMENT, ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT, AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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