周子堯@FB

JTWC發布TCFA

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.8S 55.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 55.5E, APPROXIMATELY 405
NM NORTH OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED BANDING. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN IMPROVED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES ARE FAVORABLE AT 28 TO 29C.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT, SHOWING THE SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

t02436

MFR編號熱帶擾動第4號

** WTIO22 FMEE 031234 ***
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/02/2017
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/02/2017 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: DISTURBANCE 4  1006 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 55.5 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A RADIUS OF 100NM FROM THE CENTER AND UP TO 170NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20KT
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2017/02/04 AT 00 UTC:
15.2 S / 56.0 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H, VALID 2017/02/04 AT 12 UTC:
16.3 S / 56.0 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF
REGULAR WARNINGS.=

s6815711

18Z時評級提升至High

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.1S 55.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 55.5E, APPROXIMATELY 405
NM NORTH OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED BANDING. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN IMPROVED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES ARE FAVORABLE AT 28 TO 29C.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT, SHOWING THE SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH.