1. An area of cloudiness and showers over the western Atlantic Ocean
northeast of the Bahamas is associated with the interaction of an
upper-level trough and a weakening front. While development is not
anticipated for the next couple of days, environmental conditions
are expected to become more conducive for tropical or subtropical
development on Friday. This area of disturbed weather is forecast to
move slowly west-northwestward or northwestward and gradually
approach the southeastern United States over the weekend. The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 8 PM EDT tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent
A low pressure area centered between Bermuda and the Bahamas is
gradually becoming better defined while shower activity is
increasing. Environmental conditions are expected to become more
conducive for tropical or subtropical cyclone formation on Friday
while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward toward
the southeastern United States coast. With the Memorial Day weekend
approaching, all interests along the southeast coast from Georgia
through North Carolina should monitor the progress of this low. An
Air Force reconnaissance plane will be scheduled to investigate
this low on Friday. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on
this disturbance will be issued by 3 PM EDT today. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
000
NOUS42 KNHC 261429
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030AM EDT THU 26 MAY 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z MAY 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-001
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA....NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS
FIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 27/1800Z A. 28/1130Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST B. AFXXX 0202 CYCLONE
C. 27/1500Z C. 27/0830Z
D. 28.0N 74.0W D. 30.0N 76.0W
E. 27/1730Z TO 27/2130Z E. 28/1100Z TO 28/1630Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES WHILE
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
3. REMARKS: THIS IS A SPECIAL TCPOD. DAILY TCPODS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED WHILE AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE MISSIONS
ARE BEING CONSIDERED OR TASKED FOR THIS SYSTEM.
1. Shower activity associated with the low pressure area located
between Bermuda and the Bahamas has become somewhat better
organized since yesterday, and the circulation of the low has become
a little better defined. Environmental conditions are expected to
be generally conducive for a tropical or subtropical cyclone to form
on Friday or Saturday while this system moves west-northwestward or
northwestward toward the southeastern United States coast. All
interests along the southeast coast from Georgia through North
Carolina should monitor the progress of this low. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
low on Friday afternoon. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook
on this disturbance will be issued by 8 AM EDT Friday morning. For
additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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