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yuloucn|2011-2-20 21:12
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本帖最後由 yuloucn 於 2011-2-20 21:15 編輯
FMS预测24小时后90KT！
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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 20/0804 UTC 2011 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ATU CENTRE 973HPA CAT 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
17.0S 169.4E AT 200600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR AND VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 3 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 70 KNOTS AND INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE, WINDS
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS
WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE
QUADRANT 45 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
ATU INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN
THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH CENTRE
EMBEDDED. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM BUT GOOD
ELSEWHERE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 300 HPA. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH UNDER AN UPPER
DIFFLUENT REGION. CIMSS INDICATES SYSTEM LYING IN A MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT AND DECREASING SHEAR ALONG FORECAST PATH. SYSTEM IS BEING
STEERED SOUTH BY A WEAK NORHTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND. DVORAK
ASSESSMENT BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN IN WHITE SURROUND
YIELDING DT = 5.0, MET =4.5 PT = 4.5, FT BASED ON MET, THUS
T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY MOVING THE SYSTEM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH
SOME INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 201800 UTC 17.4S 169.6E MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 80
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 210600 UTC 18.2S 169.9E MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 90
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 211800 UTC 19.4S 170.2E MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 90
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 220600 UTC 21.1S 170.7E MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 90
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON CYCLONE ATU WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 191400 UTC. |
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