【南印】14S (FW) 澳洲西北外海

... · 2011-2-9 13:29

本帖最後由 ... 於 2011-2-13 11:44 編輯

sm20110209_0500_meteo7_x_vis1km_high_96SINVEST_15kts-1010mb-160S-1160E_100pc.jpg

96S.INVEST

yuloucn · 2011-2-9 20:02

bom報文繙譯
【潛在的熱帶氣旋】
在西部時間中午，一個弱低壓集結於15.5S 116.5E，在皮爾巴拉海岸北，赫德蘭港北北西約580km的海面上。此低壓預計會向西南西方向移動並在周五加強為壹熱帶氣旋，屆時此低壓將會遠離西澳大利亞大陸。
此系統在西澳大利亞地區發展為熱帶氣旋的可能性：
周四低
周五高
周六高

另外,老J給poor了

yuloucn · 2011-2-9 21:34

本帖最後由 yuloucn 於 2011-2-9 21:35 編輯

现在系统已经比较有组织，但由于风切较强，强对流区并没有覆盖LLCC
如果照bom的路径移动，南方有一个低风切区，在那里可以得到发展
不过系统的西南又是一片干区，水汽不够，未来72H上望40Kt（bom 的10-min st.）

此系统已经吞并95S http://twtybbs.com/viewthread.php?tid=1036

yuloucn · 2011-2-9 23:21

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Coastal Waters Wind Warning
For Broome to Northwest Cape
Issued at 8:00 pm WST on Wednesday 9 February 2011

Synoptic situation
A tropical low well north of the west pilbara coast Pilbara will produce fresh to strong NE'ly winds over northern waters.

Strong Wind Warning
Broome to Barrow Island
NE winds 20/30 knots easing below 25 knots east of Cape Preston early Thursday morning to below 25 knots throughout Thursday afternoon. Seas to 2.5m. Swell to 1.0m

Strong Wind Warning
Barrow Island to Northwest Cape
Expect E/NE winds to reach 20/30 knots early Thursday morning, easing below 25 knots Thursday evening. Seas to 2.5m. Swell to 1.0m.

The next warning will be issued by 5:00 am WST Thursday.

... · 2011-2-10 14:32

FAIR

yuloucn · 2011-2-10 19:17

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Coastal Waters Wind Warning
For Cape Preston to Northwest Cape
Issued at 3:35 pm WST on Thursday 10 February 2011

Synoptic situation
A tropical low well north of the west pilbara coast Pilbara is producing fresh to strong NE'ly winds over northern waters which will ease this evening.

Strong Wind Warning
Cape Preston to Northwest Cape
NE winds 20/30 knots, easing to below 25 knots Thursday evening. Seas to 2.5m. Swell to 1.0m

The next warning will be issued by 11:00 pm WST Thursday.

yuloucn · 2011-2-12 19:47

Remarks:
The low is no longer expected to develop into a tropical cyclone. However gales may develop in the southern semicircle this evening or overnight. It is not expected to affect the Western Australian coast within the next 48 hours.
（此低压已不具有发展成为热带气旋的潜质，但南半圆的暴风尚可能在今晚增强。此低压在未来48小时内不会影响西澳大利亚海岸。）

Name: Tropical Low

Details（详情）:
时间（+8）等级经纬度误差半径
0hr 2 pm February 12 tropical low 20.9S 99.0E 110
+6hr 8 pm February 12 tropical low 21.1S 97.9E 140
+12hr 2 am February 13 tropical low 21.1S 96.7E 165
+18hr 8 am February 13 tropical low 21.1S 95.7E 195
+24hr 2 pm February 13 tropical low 21.0S 94.7E 220
+36hr 2 am February 14 tropical low 20.8S 93.2E 280
+48hr 2 pm February 14 tropical low 20.7S 91.7E 345