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yuloucn|2011-2-13 19:36
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ZCZC 981
WTIO30 FMEE 130646
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/5/20102011
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (BINGIZA)
2.A POSITION 2011/02/13 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7S / 52.6E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 953 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 24 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 203 SE: 203 SO: 203 NO: 203
34 KT NE: 157 SE: 157 SO: 157 NO: 157
48 KT NE: 101 SE: 101 SO: 101 NO: 101
64 KT NE: 055 SE: 055 SO: 055 NO: 055
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 740 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/02/13 18 UTC: 16.3S/51.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2011/02/14 06 UTC: 16.4S/49.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2011/02/14 18 UTC: 16.4S/47.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
48H: 2011/02/15 06 UTC: 17.4S/46.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
60H: 2011/02/15 18 UTC: 18.3S/45.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND.
72H: 2011/02/16 06 UTC: 19.2S/44.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 17/02/2011 06 UTC: 20.1S/43.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
120H: 18/02/2011 06 UTC: 21.6S/44.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0- AND CI=5.5
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SLOWLY , WAVING ALONG A GLOBALLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AXIS BUT IS EXPECTED PROGRESSIVILY ACCELERATING
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LAST MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ERODATED EYE IN ITS NORTHERN PART AND
INFRARED PATTERN IS NOT SO GOOD WITHIN LAST NIGHT.
37GHZ MICROWAVE SSMIS F17 130124Z AND F16 130239S REVEALED DEPHASED
LOW
AND UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS BUT SEEM TO BE DUBIOUS THANKS TO
WINDSAT 130155Z.
THIS WORST SIGNATURE IS PROBABLY LINKED TO A LESS FAVOURABLE
EQUATORWARD
LOW LEVEL INFLOW IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE RELIEF OF MADAGASCAR.
SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO NOT INTENSIFY SO HIGH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
BEFORE
ITS LANDFALL
OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR , STILL EXPECTED MONDAY BETWEEN
MASOALA PENINSULA AND SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND, LIKELY NEAR ANTANAMBE.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD RAPIDLY DECAY INLAND AS IT MOVES WESTWARDS. HOWEVER
AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST, SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON NWP FIELDS IS FAVOURABLE
FOR
A RECURVATURE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST (STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST). THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT THE TIMING OF THIS
RECURVATURE. IF IT MO
VES OVER THE MOZAMBIC CHANNEL, BINGIZA HAS TH POTENTIAL TO
REINTENSIFY
BEFORE MOVES BACK OVER LAND BUT IF IT REMAINS INLAND THE SYSTEM COULD
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE ...
BAFORE THAT TIME THE THREAT IS GETTING STRONGER FOR THE EASTERN COAST
OF
MADAGASCAR AND IT BECOMES VERY IMPORTANT FOR UNHABITANTS OF THIS
REGION
TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS SYSTEM.=
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