king111807

JTWC評級提升至Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.4N 133.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 131.8E, APPROXIMATELY 367
NM EAST OF DAVAO. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD AND
CONSOLIDATING AREA OF ROTATION WITH FLARING, DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION. A 021048Z ASCAT-A PASS SHOWED A BROAD AND ELONGATED
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A BAND OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS EXTENDING FROM
THE NORTH TO SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER, CYCLONIC TURNING INTO THE
CIRCULATION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT,
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS, WARM (30C) SSTS AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTLFOW ALOFT. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE
92W WILL CONSOLIDATE AND INTESIFY BEFORE REACHING THE PHILIPPINES
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

甜心

這隻大型擾動低壓寶寶生成位置在這個季節對我們臺灣來說不太友善，下週一開始太平洋高壓會重新增強西伸我們得注意這傢伙的後期動向，目前各國模式預報國慶日後會有一個影響臺灣的高強度巨物系統應該就是它。

king111807

JTWC評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.4N
133.8E, APPROXIMATELY 493 NM EAST OF DAVAO. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATES A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF ROTATION WITH FLARING
CONVECTION. A 020148Z ASCAT-C PASS SHOWED NO ROTATION AT THE
SURFACE. THERE IS CURRENTLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION, AS THE
ASSOCIATED ROTATION IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MIDDLE-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. INVEST 92W IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL DEPRESSION
STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE 92W WILL INTESIFY BEFORE REACHING THE
PHILIPPINES WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.