老農民版夜神月

約於06Z系統已經出海，未來將有大約24小時的時間可以爭取獲名

WTIO30 FMEE 060728
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/14/20202021
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 14

2.A POSITION 2021/03/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 49.3 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.0/1.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/06 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2021/03/07 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 65

36H: 2021/03/07 18 UTC: 24.5 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 35 SW: 85 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 20 SW: 75 NW: 65

48H: 2021/03/08 06 UTC: 25.7 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SW: 140 NW: 95

60H: 2021/03/08 18 UTC: 27.3 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 120 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 55 SW: 110 NW: 65

72H: 2021/03/09 06 UTC: 29.0 S / 62.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 165 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 155 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/10 06 UTC: 31.6 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 65

120H: 2021/03/11 06 UTC: 33.1 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE SYSTEM MOVED OFFSHORE NEAR VATOMANDRY THIS MORNING AFTER CROSSING
THE MALAGASY LANDMASS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS RATHER WEAK AND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION APPEARS QUITE ELONGATED.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-EASTWARDS AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDES TROUGH. THE MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST
A PASSAGE AT MORE THAN 100 KM IN THE SOUTH-WEST OF REUNION ISLAND
SUNDAY MORNING, EVEN IF MEDIUM UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT
TRACK. EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE CAPTURED BY A
MID-LATITUDES TROUGH WHICH SHOULD BRING IT SOUTH OF 25S, FAR FROM THE
INHABITED ISLANDS, ALONG A SOUTH-EASTWARDS THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS
TRACK. AT THE END OF THE TAUS, THE RESIDUAL DEPRESSION MIGHT BE
TEMPORARILY TRAPPED NORTH OF 30S WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW HIGH
PRESSURE CELL FROM THE WEST.

TODAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD EVOLVE IN A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT ESPECIALLY
WITH AN EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD INTENSIFY AND COULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM STAGE. BUT BY SUNDAY BECAUSE OF THE STRONG SHEAR AND
INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO START ITS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION THEN.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, FOR THE MASCARENES ISLANDS, A SIGNIFICANT BUT
BRIEF PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BETWEEN SATURDAY EVENING
AND SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY IN REUNION ISLAND.=

老農民版夜神月

MFR新報上望40節

WTIO30 FMEE 060023
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/14/20202021
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 14

2.A POSITION 2021/03/06 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0 S / 47.7 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/06 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

24H: 2021/03/07 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 53.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 10 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2021/03/07 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 110

48H: 2021/03/08 00 UTC: 24.8 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SW: 95 NW: 75

60H: 2021/03/08 12 UTC: 26.2 S / 60.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 130 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 65

72H: 2021/03/09 00 UTC: 27.2 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 175 NW: 150

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/10 00 UTC: 29.0 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

120H: 2021/03/11 00 UTC: 30.0 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

dom

MFR00Z定強20KT，持續上望+24H達到中等熱帶風暴

DEPRESSION SUR TERRE numéro 14

Vents maximaux (moyennés sur 10 minutes) estimés sur mer: 35 km/h.
Rafales maximales estimées sur mer: 55 km/h.
Pression estimée au centre: 1004 hPa.
Position le 06 mars à 04 heures locales: 19.0 Sud / 47.7 Est.

Distance des côtes réunionnaises: 820 km au secteur: OUEST-NORD-OUEST
Distance de Mayotte: 730 km au secteur: SUD-SUD-EST
Déplacement: EST-SUD-EST, à 28 km/h.

dom

MFR12Z判定登陸馬特拉斯加

DEPRESSION SUR TERRE numéro 14

Vents maximaux (moyennés sur 10 minutes) estimés sur mer: 55 km/h.
Rafales maximales estimées sur mer: 85 km/h.
Pression estimée au centre: 1000 hPa.
Position le 05 mars à 16 heures locales: 18.0 Sud / 44.3 Est.

Distance des côtes réunionnaises: 1195 km au secteur: OUEST-NORD-OUEST
Distance de Mayotte: 570 km au secteur: SUD
Déplacement: EST-SUD-EST, à 20 km/h.

dom

MFR新報暫轉向不看好登陸馬達拉斯加前成旋

DEPRESSION TROPICALE numéro 14

Vents maximaux (moyennés sur 10 minutes) estimés sur mer: 55 km/h.
Rafales maximales estimées sur mer: 85 km/h.
Pression estimée au centre: 996 hPa.
Position le 05 mars à 10 heures locales: 17.4 Sud / 43.9 Est.

Distance des côtes réunionnaises: 1255 km au secteur: OUEST-NORD-OUEST
Distance de Mayotte: 520 km au secteur: SUD-SUD-OUEST
Déplacement: EST, à 26 km/h.

老農民版夜神月

SSMIS 03Z最新底層，這對流空洞看著還真是有點嚇人....

老農民版夜神月

MFR升格熱帶低壓，新報預測登陸馬達加斯加前即可獲名

WTIO30 FMEE 050110
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/14/20202021
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14

2.A POSITION 2021/03/05 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 41.7 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/05 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 35 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 85 SW: 30 NW: 65

24H: 2021/03/06 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2021/03/06 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 50.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

48H: 2021/03/07 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 95 SW: 35 NW: 130

60H: 2021/03/07 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 110

72H: 2021/03/08 00 UTC: 25.6 S / 59.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 110

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/09 00 UTC: 29.0 S / 62.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 165 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 240 SW: 155 NW: 65

120H: 2021/03/10 00 UTC: 30.8 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0

老農民版夜神月

JTWC1500Z評級Low

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
17.2S 42.2E, APPROXIMATELY 287 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO,
MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH BUILDING DEEP
CONVECTION OVERHEAD AND TO THE NORTH. A 041035Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DISTINCTLY ASYMMETRIC CONVECTION WITH
POTENTIAL FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND MOST OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE NORTHEAST. A 040650Z METOP-C
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS SMALL AREAS OF ELEVATED (20 TO 30 KNOTS)
WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE LLC. 91S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10
TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91S
WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION,
POSSIBLY JUST REACHING WARNING CRITERIA, BEFORE MOVING OVER
MADAGASCAR, REINTENSIFYING AND ATTAINING WARNING THRESHOLD AFTER
MOVING BACK OUT TO SEA IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.