老農民版夜神月

JTWC首報認為此刻即巔峰，並將逐漸轉化為溫帶氣旋

WTXS31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (IMAN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (IMAN) WARNING NR 001   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071800Z --- NEAR 24.4S 58.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.4S 58.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 25.7S 60.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 27.3S 61.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 29.1S 63.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 24.7S 58.5E.
07MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (IMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 278 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A 071724Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. TC
25S HAS CONSOLIDATED AND INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WHILE
TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN APPROACHING, DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AS THE APPROACHING TROUGH OVERTAKES THE SYSTEM. WHILE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS STRONG AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE AT AROUND 27C, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS VERY HIGH (GREATER
THAN 30 KNOTS). THE CONTINUED IMPACT OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND PASSAGE OVER COOL WATER ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH NO OFFSETTING BAROCLINIC
SUPPORT FROM INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE FORECAST
TRACK, WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S
(HABANA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 062230).//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

MFR認為即將成為後熱帶氣旋

老農民版夜神月

JTWC終於，終於參考了風場，18Z升格25S，定強45節

25S TWENTYFIVE 210307 1800 24.4S 58.0E SHEM 45 991

TPXS12 PGTW 071830

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91S (IMAN)

B. 07/1800Z

C. 24.20S

D. 57.49E

E. FIVE/MET8

F. T2.0/2.5/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0 - 1.5

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   07/1248Z  23.78S  56.83E  SSMS


   YOUNG

老農民版夜神月

風場支持(第一張風場有大片40KT以上風旗,第二張亦有35KT左右風旗)
DT,CI2.5,JTWC06Z沒升格25S..這..有點過分了啊

TPXS12 PGTW 070621

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91S (IMAN)

B. 07/0545Z

C. 23.01S

D. 54.84E

E. FIVE/MET8

F. T2.0/2.5  STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT YIELD 2.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   HEINS

老農民版夜神月

MFR00Z升格中度熱帶風暴，命名Iman

FKIO20 FMEE 070021
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20210307 /0021Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: IMAN
ADVISORY NR: 2021/01
OBS PSN: 07/0000Z S2233 E05431
CB: WI 190NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL520
MOV: ESE 19KT
INTST CHANGE: INTSF
C: 996HPA
MAX WIND: 35KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 07/0600Z S2312 E05555
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 38KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 07/1200Z S2351 E05718
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 40KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 07/1800Z S2429 E05835
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 38KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 08/0000Z S2512 E05946
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 35KT
RMK: NIL.
NXT MSG: 20210307 /0600Z=

老農民版夜神月

JTWC2230Z發布TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 062230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21.9S 53.0E TO 24.2S 59.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 062045Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 21.9S 53.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 26
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.9S 53E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.5S 53.9E, APPROXIMATELY 142 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DES GALETS, LA REUNION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 062025Z GMI 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE
DEPICT QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING AND FLARING CONVECTION. A 061839Z METOP-
C ASCAT PASS SHOWS A MUCH TIGHTER LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
RAPIDLY INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS 91S IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL CHANNEL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW,
MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28-29C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT 91S WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST WHILE CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE
AND INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
072230Z.//
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老農民版夜神月

MFR18Z判定其已重新增強為熱帶低壓,預測+12H後即將升格中度熱帶風暴

WTIO30 FMEE 061851
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/14/20202021
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14

2.A POSITION 2021/03/06 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8 S / 53.0 E
(TWENTY ONE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 18 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/07 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 100

24H: 2021/03/07 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 100

36H: 2021/03/08 06 UTC: 26.8 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 95 NW: 100

48H: 2021/03/08 18 UTC: 28.7 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 95 NW: 100

60H: 2021/03/09 06 UTC: 31.6 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 100 NW: 100

72H: 2021/03/09 18 UTC: 33.6 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SW: 100 NW: 100

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/10 18 UTC: 36.2 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.0

老農民版夜神月

JTWC18Z定強提升至30KT,並提升評級為Medium

91S INVEST 210306 1800 21.9S 53.0E SHEM 30 1005

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.1S 44.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.9S 53E, APPROXIMATELY 142 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DES GALETS, LA REUNION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 061528Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE
DEPICT DISORGANIZED AND FLARING CONVECTION WITH AN ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS 91S IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL CHANNEL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW,
MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28-29C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT 91S WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST WHILE UNDERGOING MARGINAL
CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.