老農民版夜神月

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：06 S
擾動編號日期：2020 年 01 月 03 日 09 時
撤編日期　　：2020 年 01 月 11 日 06 時
91S INVEST 200103 0000 12.0S 119.5E SHEM 15 0

jrchang5

BoM與JTWC均判定07/18Z已登陸西澳北岸。

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1909 UTC 07/01/2020
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Blake
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 20.0S
Longitude: 120.5E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [218 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [14 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 993 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:   
Dvorak Intensity Code:
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 140 nm [260 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  08/0000: 20.5S 120.2E:     035 [070]:  030  [055]:  991
+12:  08/0600: 21.2S 120.0E:     050 [090]:  030  [055]:  994
+18:  08/1200: 22.0S 119.8E:     060 [115]:  030  [055]:  995
+24:  08/1800: 22.9S 119.9E:     075 [135]:  030  [055]:  996
+36:  09/0600: 24.5S 120.5E:     095 [175]:  030  [055]:  998
+48:  09/1800: 25.5S 121.6E:     115 [210]:  030  [055]:  999
+60:  10/0600:             :              :            :     
+72:  10/1800:             :              :            :     
+96:  11/1800:             :              :            :     
+120: 12/1800:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Blake was located using a combination of surface
observations and radar. The system is currently located over land just to the
south of the east Pilbara coastline.

The system has now moved over land and as such a subjective Dvorak analysis will
cease. FT set at 2.5 and CI 2.5, with the system now weakened below cyclone
intensity. Significant convection is still occurring on the southwestern flank
of the system and heavy rainfall is anticipated to continue throughout Wednesday
and into Thursday as it moves inland.

NWP is in good agreement with Blake forecast to track towards the south
southwest, though there is potential for a more west southwest track in the very
short term.

Model guidance is in general agreement that a low-level circulation maintains
reasonable structure as it moves through inland parts, and even potentially
deepens slightly on Thursday and Friday due to interaction with an upper trough.
As a result, damaging wind gusts around the system will still be possible,
though persistent gales are unlikely.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system.

WTXS31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 009   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071800Z --- NEAR 19.8S 120.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 120.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 20.9S 120.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 22.3S 120.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 120.5E.
07JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 117
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING UNDER A
REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO OBSCURE
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED WITHIN ITS
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SET BASED ON LOW LEVEL
TURNING OBSERVED ON THE PORT HEDLAND RADAR SYSTEM, LENDING GOOD
CONFIDENCE TO THE POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
SUPPORTED BY A 071800Z OBSERVATION EAST OF THE CURRENT POSITION IN
MANDORA, AUSTRALIA WITH A PRESSURE OF 991 MB. TC 06S REMAINS IN A
REGION OF LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST IS FUNCTIONING AS
THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR TC 06S. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, WEAKENING DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION UNTIL DISSIPATION BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES ALONG THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z,
080900Z AND 081500Z.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

目前BoM與JTWC對於系統是否已經登陸及定位上有些分歧

老農民版夜神月

JTWC升格06S,BoM升格澳式C1,命名Blake.系統正沿澳洲西北部近岸南下,約兩日後登陸

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Blake has developed over waters to the north of Broome and is likely to cause gales along the northwest Kimberley coast during Monday.

Areas affected:
Warning zone: Kuri Bay to De Grey, including Broome.
Watch zone: De Grey to Whim Creek, including Port Hedland and extending inland to include Marble Bar.
Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Blake at 8:00 am AWST:
Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 85 kilometres of 15.8 degrees South, 122.0 degrees East , 240 kilometres north of Broome and 270 kilometres west of Kuri Bay .
Movement: east at 9 kilometres per hour .
Tropical Cyclone Blake is slowly moving over waters to the north of Broome. The system is likely to begin to move southwards adjacent or close to the Dampier Peninsula during today.

During Tuesday the system is forecast to move towards the south southwest and may cross the coast in the vicinity of Wallal Downs along Eighty Mile Beach late on Tuesday or early Wednesday.

Hazards:
GALES may be occurring along coastal parts of the Dampier Peninsula and may develop near the coast between Kuri Bay and Wallal Downs during today, including Broome. GALES could extend to De Grey during Tuesday or early Wednesday. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts in excess of 125 kilometres per hour may develop early Tuesday between Broome and Wallal Downs. GALES could extend into inland parts of the eastern Pilbara late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

Heavy rainfall is expected over the west Kimberley and is likely to extend into the eastern Pilbara during Tuesday and Wednesday.

A Flood Watch [IDW39605] has been issued for coastal areas of the western Kimberley and eastern Pilbara.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC05/0330Z發布TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 050330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9S 121.2E TO 19.0S 120.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 050000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.7S 121.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.7S 120.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 121.1E, APPROXIMATELY
145 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM THAT AGENCIES ARE
NOW FIXING ON. A 042225Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL WITH BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, AND A 050051Z METOP-A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS TO THE
EAST SHOWS A VERY BROAD AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS STRETCHING OVER 100NM
TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. NEARBY OBSERVATIONS REPORT
WINDS FROM 25-30 KTS AND PRESSURE FALLS TO 1002MB. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS FAVORABLE WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, A
SMALL POCKET OF LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
WARM (30-31 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY WITHIN
12-24 HOURS WHILE TRACKING POLEWARD TOWARDS AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
060330Z.

老農民版夜神月

BoM預報此系統將逐漸對澳洲西北沿岸造成影響,並大約於兩天後升格TC

Headline:
A tropical low lies northwest of the Kimberley, and is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone late Monday or Tuesday.

Areas affected:
Warning zone: None.
Watch zone: Mitchell Plateau to Wallal.
Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 110 kilometres of 14.0 degrees South, 122.0 degrees East , 320 kilometres west northwest of Kuri Bay and 440 kilometres north of Broome .
Movement: slow moving .
A tropical low has formed in the monsoon trough northwest of the Kimberley. It is expected to move slowly south southwest parallel to the Kimberley coast and strengthen reaching tropical cyclone intensity late Monday or Tuesday. At this time it could be just west of Broome. In the longer term it is expected to continue moving southwest towards the Pilbara coast.

Hazards:
Heavy rainfall and strong winds are expected to develop near the west Kimberley coast during Sunday and continue into Monday.

t02436

03Z提升評級至Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.0S 113.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 118.3E, APPROXIMATELY
422 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A BROAD
LOW LEVEL CENTER. A 032238Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
SHALLOW BANDING IN THE LOW LEVELS AND WELL-ORGANIZED MIDLEVEL
ROTATION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM
(30-31 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY WITHIN
24-48 HOURS WHILE TRACKING POLEWARDS TOWARDS AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC03/1800Z評級Low

ABIO10 PGTW 031800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/031800Z-041800ZJAN2020//RMKS/
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.0S 113.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 673 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF FLARING
CONVECTION. A 031338Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE WIND FIELD CONSISTS
OF BROAD TROUGHING. HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH STRONG,
POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND WARM (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. DESPITE THE
CURRENT LACK OF CONSOLIDATION, GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN CONSENSUS FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENTOF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO LOW.