A tropical low (02U) is expected to develop in a monsoon trough which lies south of Indonesia during Saturday. The system could slowly strengthen, which increases the risk of a tropical cyclone to Moderate on Monday. It could be near the west Kimberley coast on Sunday and Monday and the Pilbara coast from Tuesday, with a coastal crossing being possible. Even if it does not reach tropical cyclone intensity, strong winds and heavy rainfall are still expected near the system.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Saturday:
Very Low
Sunday:
Low
Monday:
Moderate
ABIO10 PGTW 031800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/031800Z-041800ZJAN2020//RMKS/
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.0S 113.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 673 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF FLARING
CONVECTION. A 031338Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE WIND FIELD CONSISTS
OF BROAD TROUGHING. HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH STRONG,
POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND WARM (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. DESPITE THE
CURRENT LACK OF CONSOLIDATION, GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN CONSENSUS FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENTOF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO LOW.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.0S 113.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 118.3E, APPROXIMATELY
422 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A BROAD
LOW LEVEL CENTER. A 032238Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
SHALLOW BANDING IN THE LOW LEVELS AND WELL-ORGANIZED MIDLEVEL
ROTATION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM
(30-31 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY WITHIN
24-48 HOURS WHILE TRACKING POLEWARDS TOWARDS AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
Headline:
A tropical low lies northwest of the Kimberley, and is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone late Monday or Tuesday.
Areas affected:
Warning zone: None.
Watch zone: Mitchell Plateau to Wallal.
Cancelled zones: None.
Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 110 kilometres of 14.0 degrees South, 122.0 degrees East , 320 kilometres west northwest of Kuri Bay and 440 kilometres north of Broome .
Movement: slow moving .
A tropical low has formed in the monsoon trough northwest of the Kimberley. It is expected to move slowly south southwest parallel to the Kimberley coast and strengthen reaching tropical cyclone intensity late Monday or Tuesday. At this time it could be just west of Broome. In the longer term it is expected to continue moving southwest towards the Pilbara coast.
Hazards:
Heavy rainfall and strong winds are expected to develop near the west Kimberley coast during Sunday and continue into Monday.
WTXS21 PGTW 050330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9S 121.2E TO 19.0S 120.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 050000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.7S 121.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.7S 120.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 121.1E, APPROXIMATELY
145 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM THAT AGENCIES ARE
NOW FIXING ON. A 042225Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL WITH BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, AND A 050051Z METOP-A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS TO THE
EAST SHOWS A VERY BROAD AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS STRETCHING OVER 100NM
TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. NEARBY OBSERVATIONS REPORT
WINDS FROM 25-30 KTS AND PRESSURE FALLS TO 1002MB. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS FAVORABLE WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, A
SMALL POCKET OF LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
WARM (30-31 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY WITHIN
12-24 HOURS WHILE TRACKING POLEWARD TOWARDS AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
060330Z.
Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Blake has developed over waters to the north of Broome and is likely to cause gales along the northwest Kimberley coast during Monday.
Areas affected:
Warning zone: Kuri Bay to De Grey, including Broome.
Watch zone: De Grey to Whim Creek, including Port Hedland and extending inland to include Marble Bar.
Cancelled zones: None.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Blake at 8:00 am AWST:
Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 85 kilometres of 15.8 degrees South, 122.0 degrees East , 240 kilometres north of Broome and 270 kilometres west of Kuri Bay .
Movement: east at 9 kilometres per hour .
Tropical Cyclone Blake is slowly moving over waters to the north of Broome. The system is likely to begin to move southwards adjacent or close to the Dampier Peninsula during today.
During Tuesday the system is forecast to move towards the south southwest and may cross the coast in the vicinity of Wallal Downs along Eighty Mile Beach late on Tuesday or early Wednesday.
Hazards:
GALES may be occurring along coastal parts of the Dampier Peninsula and may develop near the coast between Kuri Bay and Wallal Downs during today, including Broome. GALES could extend to De Grey during Tuesday or early Wednesday. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts in excess of 125 kilometres per hour may develop early Tuesday between Broome and Wallal Downs. GALES could extend into inland parts of the eastern Pilbara late Tuesday or early Wednesday.
Heavy rainfall is expected over the west Kimberley and is likely to extend into the eastern Pilbara during Tuesday and Wednesday.
A Flood Watch [IDW39605] has been issued for coastal areas of the western Kimberley and eastern Pilbara.
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