簽到天數: 3280 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2016-2-8 23:42
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JTWC評級Low
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.4S
167.9E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM EAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION
CONSOLIDATING INTO BANDS CONVERGING TOWARDS THE LLCC. A 081001Z
ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS THE LLCC HAS CONSOLIDATED FROM AN AREA OF
TROUGHING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH A LARGE SWATH OF 15-20 KNOT
WINDS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
IS MARGINAL WITH MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
BEING OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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