t02436

CPHC提升風速至50節
預計18Z以後才有機會進西太

WTPA42 PHFO 120850
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM HALOLA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012015
1100 PM HST SAT JUL 11 2015

DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER OF HALOLA DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/
REMAINS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT A FEW RECENT MICROWAVE
PASSES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS PROBABLY LOCATED ON THE NW SIDE
OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGED
FROM 3.0 TO 3.5...WHILE THE UW-CIMSS ADT HAS INCREASED TO NEAR 4.0
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. BASED ON THE IMPROVED SATELLITE
APPEARANCE AND PERSISTENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 50 KT.

INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 300/10. THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH LITTLE CHANGE IS FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...AS HALOLA TRACKS TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
CYCLES...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT
AS WELL. THIS TRACK IS IN BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE TVCN
CONSENSUS...BUT IS NOT AS FAR TO THE NORTH AS THE LATEST ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE SUITE REMAINS REASONABLY
WELL-CLUSTERED ABOUT THE EXPECTED WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28C OR HIGHER LIE ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND CURRENT
VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES REMAIN VERY LOW AS DIAGNOSED BY UW-CIMSS AND
SHIPS GUIDANCE. SHIPS...LGEM AND IVCN CONSENSUS ALL BRING THE
CYCLONE TO TYPHOON STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...SOON
AFTER IT CROSSES THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE. HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW
THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER LGEM INTENSIFICATION CURVE FOR NOW...IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AT TAU 48 AND BEYOND...MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE LEVELS OFF INTENSITY AROUND 70 KT...POSSIBLY DUE
TO SOME WESTERLY SHEAR WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE PRESENT JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK.

INTERESTS ON WAKE ISLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF TROPICAL STORM HALOLA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 11.5N 178.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  12/1800Z 12.2N 179.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  13/0600Z 13.0N 178.1E   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  13/1800Z 13.8N 175.9E   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  14/0600Z 14.6N 173.7E   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  15/0600Z 16.3N 169.4E   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  16/0600Z 18.5N 165.5E   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  17/0600Z 20.5N 161.0E   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER JACOBSON/HOUSTON

JMA發布SW

STORM WARNING.
EXPECTED EASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 60 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED
BY 15N 176E 15N 180E 13N 180E 13N 176E 15N 176E FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
EXPECTED WESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 60 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED
BY 13N 176E 13N 180E 11N 180E 11N 176E 13N 176E FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

ben811018

【遠洋訪客將到訪 １２號颱風將命名】
中太平洋上有兩個熱帶風暴正在發展，其中「HALOLA」即將在今天深夜到明天清晨之間跨越國際換日線進入西北太平洋，
將成為今年第１２號颱風。而後頭的「IUNE」正在通過夏威夷南方海域，也有機會在週五到週六間進入西北太平洋。


「HALOLA」強度正逐漸增強，進入西北太平洋後巔峰強度可達中度颱風規模，
預計將沿著副熱帶高壓邊緣進行，對西太平洋周邊國家不會有威脅。

BlankCat

大陸官方譯名「哈洛拉」
相信大陸和香港往後的報告都會使用
台灣會否跟隨相同寫法就要遲點才知道

jwpk9899

熱帶風暴Halola持續西移 預估在今晚至明晨就會進入西太平洋將成為今年第12號颱風 中文譯名有待氣象局發報
哈羅拉、赫勒拉、哈洛娜、哈歐娜、哈羅娜、安羅拉、哈洛拉、豪歐拉、郝蘿拉
以上都是論壇大家認為可能的譯名 這些名子會不會有正解  還是cwb又神英文發作呢 讓我們看下去

ps:預估以輕颱上限進入西太平洋



SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY HIGH ALONG
THE ENTIRE FORECAST TRACK. SHEAR VALUES REMAIN LOW AT THE PRESENT
TIME AS INDICATED BY UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. WITH CONTINUED LOW
SHEAR VALUES AND WARM SEAS SURFACE TEMPERATURES...HALOLA IS FORECAST
TO REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH JUST WEST OF THE DATELINE SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH IVCN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE AS WELL AS
SHIPS GUIDANCE.

INTERESTS ON WAKE ISLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM HALOLA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0300Z 11.0N 177.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  12/1200Z 11.4N 178.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  13/0000Z 12.1N 178.9E   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  13/1200Z 12.8N 176.6E   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  14/0000Z 13.6N 174.2E   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  15/0000Z 15.2N 169.7E   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  16/0000Z 16.9N 165.1E   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  17/0000Z 18.6N 160.6E   70 KT  80 MPH

$$

蜜露

EC 很看好哈洛娜的強度,進入西太可能會走很長一段時間西行
而且環境都是低風切.

t02436

跨洋前命名HALOLA




命名報

WTPA42 PHFO 110228
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM HALOLA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012015
500 PM HST FRI JUL 10 2015

LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 2.0 FROM
JTWC AND 2.5 FROM PHFO AND SAB. SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN APPEARANCE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ONE-C HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.

THE INITIAL SYSTEM MOTION IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE SYSTEM
REMAINS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED FAR TO ITS NORTH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A BIT MORE
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THEREAFTER WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED. THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK AS WELL AS WITH TVCN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...AS RIDGING
REMAINS ESTABLISHED TO ITS NORTH.

SHEAR VALUES ARE PRESENTLY RATHER LOW OVER THE SYSTEM WITH SST
VALUES ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 28C. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES
TO ANTICIPATE SLOW BUT STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS
BEFORE LEVELING OFF THROUGH 120 HOURS. THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH
IVCN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WHICH IS ALSO CLOSE TO SHIPS GUIDANCE
THROUGH 72 HOURS. SHIPS DOES INDICATE SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING ON DAYS
4 AND 5 DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OF AROUND 28C WILL REMAIN ALONG THE ENTIRE FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 11.5N 173.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  11/1200Z 11.7N 174.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  12/0000Z 12.2N 176.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  12/1200Z 13.0N 178.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  13/0000Z 13.8N 178.9E   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  14/0000Z 15.6N 174.4E   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  15/0000Z 17.3N 169.9E   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  16/0000Z 18.6N 165.4E   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

Meow

JMA直接預測2天後STS了。:lol

t02436

CPHC於06Z升格01C
預計12小時內命名
13日早上進入西太平洋

WTPA42 PHFO 100843
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012015
1100 PM HST THU JUL 09 2015

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW PRESSURE AREA FAR SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAS
PERSISTED TO THE POINT THAT THE SYSTEM QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. WHILE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM
1.0 TO 1.5...AN EARLIER RAPIDSCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS AS HIGH
AS 30 KT NORTH OF THE CENTER. THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY IS SET AT 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION VECTOR IS 270/08 KT...WITH THE DEPRESSION
LOCATED SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTH. THE
RIDGE WILL SUPPORT A GENERAL TRACK TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CLOSE TO THE
GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE TVCY CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
ANTICIPATES A STEADY INTENSIFICATION RATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS THAT SLOWS IN THE LATER PERIODS AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND FOLLOWS TRENDS PRESENTED BY
THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0900Z 11.4N 170.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  10/1800Z 11.4N 172.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  11/0600Z 11.6N 173.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  11/1800Z 12.0N 176.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  12/0600Z 12.7N 178.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  13/0600Z 14.0N 178.0E   55 KT  65 MPH
96H  14/0600Z 16.0N 174.0E   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  15/0600Z 18.0N 170.0E   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD