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asus5635|2015-7-13 06:34
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本帖最後由 t02436 於 2015-7-13 08:56 編輯
CPHC最新一報表示已跨洋
下一報由JMA發報
WTPA42 PHFO 122055
TCDCP2
TROPICAL STORM HALOLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012015
1100 AM HST SUN JUL 12 2015
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE LLCC...WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES COMING IN AT 3.0
FROM JTWC AND SAB AND 3.5 AT HFO. CIMSS SATCON SUGGESTED MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KT...AND AN AVERAGE OF THE FIXES AND SATCON
YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT
EXTRAPOLATION BETWEEN A BRIEF EYE-LIKE STRUCTURE IN INFRARED IMAGERY
BETWEEN 1230 AND 1500 UTC AND A 1827 UTC SSMIS PASS WAS RELIED UPON
TO ESTIMATE THE POSITION OF THE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE LLCC.
ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL POSITION WAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH DUE TO
DIFFICULTY LOCATING THE LLCC...INITIAL MOTION IS NEARLY UNCHANGED AT
300/11 KT. WHILE RATHER STRONG RIDGING IN THE LOWER LEVELS REMAINS
FIRMLY IN PLACE NEAR 30N...THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS BEING
CAUSED BY A BREAK IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INDUCED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ROUGHLY 900 MILES TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. HALOLA WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS DEEP RIDGING
STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE TRACK FORECAST
RUNS NEARLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...FOLLOWING
CLOSELY TO THE CONSENSUS.
SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST. HALOLA WILL REMAIN OVER WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 83 F WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH AT LEAST DAY THREE. DURING THIS
TIME...THE MAIN IMPEDIMENT TO INTENSIFICATION WILL LIKELY BE A
DISRUPTION TO THE OUTFLOW IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST QUADRANTS AS
HALOLA SHOULD REMAIN IN OR NEAR THE BREAK IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT HALOLA WILL INTENSIFY...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR ICON AND DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...WHICH CONTAINS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SPREAD. BASED ON
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...HALOLA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TYPHOON
TOMORROW.
INTERESTS ON WAKE ISLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF TROPICAL STORM HALOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY RSMC
TOKYO JAPAN. FOR U.S. INTERESTS...SEE THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED
BY THE U.S. NWS WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE IN GUAM...AND DEPARTMENT OF
DEFENSE WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/2100Z 12.8N 179.9E 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 13.5N 178.3E 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 14.4N 176.3E 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 15.2N 174.4E 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 16.1N 172.3E 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 17.6N 168.0E 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 18.7N 164.0E 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 19.8N 159.5E 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
FORECASTER WROE
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