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老農民版夜神月|2019-9-27 17:04
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JTWC升格19W首報詳細報文
WTPN31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261421ZSEP2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 14.1N 137.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 137.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 15.4N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 16.8N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.2N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.5N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 23.3N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 28.2N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 33.0N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 136.2E.
27SEP19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 906 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z,
272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN PGTW 261430).//
NNNN WDPN31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 906
NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT TD 19W CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND IMPROVE IN STRUCTURE
WITH BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH AND THE
SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND IS
BASED ON A 270603Z 85GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION
AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH GOOD CONVECTIVE
BANDING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS
BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T1.5 FROM PGTW
AND RJTD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TD 19W IS EXPERIENCING
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOTS). TD 19W HAS EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BUT LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 28 AND 30
DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 19W IS QUICKLY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS POSITIONED
TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. IN THE SHORT TERM, TD 19W WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STR. FORWARD TRACK SPEED HAS BEEN ABNORMALLY FAST OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. DURING THIS PERIOD DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT ACCURATELY
CAPTURED THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW
TD 19W TO STAIDLY INTENSIFY. AFTER TAU 48, TD 19W WILL BEGIN TO ROUND
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND BEGIN TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A BIFURCATION WITH NAVGEM AND JGSM
OUTLIERS TO THE EAST WITH THE REMAINING CONSENSUS MEMBERS TIGHTLY
GROUPED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS A SPREAD OF 265 NM BY TAU 72 WITH ECMWF ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE MODELS AND JGSM ON THE EASTERN EDGE. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS PLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
DUE TO THE ABNORMALLY FAST TRACK SPEED AND THE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 19W WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE STR AND BEGIN TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. UPPER LEVER OUTFLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AND ALLOW TD 19W TO REACH 90 KNOTS BY TAU
96. AN APPROACHING WEST TO EAST MOVING SHORTWAVE THROUGH WILL HELP TO
ACCELERATE TD 19W NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 120 WITH A SPREAD OF 480 NM.
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MODELS WITH JGSM AND
NAVGEM STILL OUTLIERS TO THE EAST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. BASED ON THE WIDE
SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN 
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