1416鳳凰警報解除轉化溫帶氣旋

服部武藏 · 2014-9-17 02:01

本帖最後由服部武藏於 2014-9-17 02:08 編輯

EC預測強度不強不過會從台灣東方外海北上離開

時間是9/16 00UTC+096HR

GFS預報也認為會從台灣東方外海北上離開

時間是9/16 12UTC+090HR

丹尼兒 · 2014-9-17 01:16

EC00Z系集總匯從資料來看影響台的機率的確是有增加不少的只差通過呂宋北轉襲台或著是沿著呂宋東岸北上通過東南部近海這兩種的影響程面是截然不同的能否破防護罩魔咒等著看了

蔡秉勳 · 2014-9-16 23:58

本帖最後由蔡秉勳於 2014-9-17 00:00 編輯

在海上無感的漂了幾天,但96w今天發展其實並不算慢,稍早聯合預報中心評級Medium,晚上JMA也給Tropical Depression,更重要的是數值看好,GFS這幾報也調升強度
目前輻散良好,海溫,風切條件亦不差,有高層反氣旋出現,另外LLCC持續發展,南.北面風場相對較廣,輻合仍待加強,GFS預測將會槽前爆發,值得關注

小峰 · 2014-9-16 22:52

熱低的預測路徑，有明朗一點了嗎？

Meow · 2014-9-16 22:30

本帖最後由 Meow 於 2014-9-16 22:31 編輯

JMA 已升格此低壓區為熱低。

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 12N 139E WEST SLOWLY.

甜心 · 2014-9-16 16:04

本帖最後由甜心於 2014-9-16 16:05 編輯

丹尼兒發表於 2014-9-16 02:31
EC12Z最新速報跟CMC差不多情況
96W調高強度中颱水準標準象神路徑今年第二襲台風? 值得各位大家關注了
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:o96w擾動低壓過去一天結構內縮很多顯示其強度正在增加中，由後期路線看起來未來有靠近臺灣東方海面或日本南方海面的可能性存在但變數仍大就是。

ahdeeh · 2014-9-16 13:55

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-9-16 15:15 編輯

JTWC評級Medium了

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0N143.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 138.7E, APPROXIMATELY 42 NM NORTH-EAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ACONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTEDBANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERNPERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. WEAK CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN FLARING OVERTHE PAST FEW HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVING UPPERLEVEL ENVIRONMENT, WITH WEAK ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW CREATING LOW TOMODERATE LEVELS (10 TO 15 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMICMODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUMSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEALEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.