簽到天數: 3280 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2014-7-28 08:22
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升評Medium
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.7N
153.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 151.1E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTH
OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROKEN
CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO COALESCE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A RECENT
271155Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS OF
VWS ARE IMPACTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LLCC. A 271156Z GPM
MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE
WITH A BUILDING FEEDER BAND ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGGRESSIVELY INDICATE DEVELOPMENT FROM
THIS REGION IN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE
LLCC STRUCTURE BUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT STILL STRUGGLING
TO ORGANIZE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
對流渾圓 後來居上
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