【熱帶擾動活躍】
目前在菲律賓東南方
有一個熱帶擾動９９Ｗ正在發展～
.　
根據模式預估(可參考左下的圖)
９９Ｗ六(18)、日(19)沿著菲律賓東岸移動
下週一(20)抵達菲律賓東北角後
再轉向東北
這樣走，雲雨帶擦邊而過
降雨會以東部、北部為主
.　
另一個觀察重點是
９９Ｗ北上過程中
會遇到東北季風增強，冷空氣南下
所幸９９Ｗ位置偏東就北轉
帶來的水氣會少許多
迎風面地區出現劇烈雨勢
或發生共伴效應的機率也會降低許多
　
即便如此
還沒正式北轉前都要密切注意～

評級Low，GFS、EC未來路徑預測

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
5.2N 133.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.3N 134.8E, APPROXIMATELY 188 NM
SOUTH OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
AND A 150400Z AMSR2 89GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH RAGGED ILL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 150048Z
ASCAT METOP-C PARTIAL PASS SHOWS PREDOMINANTLY 15-20KT WINDS IN THE
NORTH AND SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERIES WHICH IS WELL DISPLACED FROM THE
BULK OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE REGION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE
AREA TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR 99W TO DEVELOP DUE TO THE HIGH (30-40KT) VWS
AND MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL EXHAUST, OFFSET ONLY BY WARM (28-29C) SSTS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES
AND STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP INTO A MEANINGFUL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.