已經消散

BoM 已升格三級強烈熱帶氣旋
現在看起來差不多要開眼了
也是一個小鋼炮型的熱帶氣旋

1. IDD20020
   
2. TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
   
3. Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
   
4. at: 0716 UTC 28/04/2017
   
5. Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Frances
   
6. Identifier: 29U
   
7. Data At: 0600 UTC
   
8. Latitude: 11.8S
   
9. Longitude: 125.6E
   
10. Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
    
11. Movement Towards: west southwest [237 deg]
    
12. Speed of Movement: 9 knots [17 km/h]
    
13. Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
    
14. Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
    
15. Central Pressure: 983 hPa
    
16. Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
    
17. Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 75 nm [140 km]
    
18. Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 75 nm [140 km]
    
19. Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
    
20. Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
    
21. Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
    
22. Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
    
23. Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
    
24. Radius of 64-knot winds: 15 nm [30 km]
    
25. Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
    
26. Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS
    
27. Pressure of outermost isobar: 1010 hPa
    
28. Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
    
29. FORECAST DATA
    
30. Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
    
31. [UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
    
32. +06:  28/1200: 12.1S 124.5E:     040 [080]:  070  [130]:  984
    
33. +12:  28/1800: 12.4S 123.5E:     055 [100]:  075  [140]:  983
    
34. +18:  29/0000: 12.8S 122.5E:     065 [125]:  070  [130]:  984
    
35. +24:  29/0600: 13.0S 121.6E:     080 [145]:  060  [110]:  986
    
36. +36:  29/1800: 13.3S 120.3E:     100 [185]:  050  [095]:  994
    
37. +48:  30/0600: 13.5S 119.2E:     120 [220]:  030  [055]: 1003
    
38. +60:  30/1800: 13.6S 118.4E:     140 [255]:  030  [050]: 1006
    
39. +72:  01/0600: 13.6S 117.8E:     155 [290]:  025  [045]: 1004
    
40. +96:  02/0600: 13.4S 116.5E:     200 [370]:  025  [045]: 1005
    
41. +120: 03/0600: 12.4S 114.4E:     270 [500]:  015  [030]: 1012
    
42. REMARKS:
    
43. Severe Tropical Cyclone Frances has shown evidence of an eye developing over the
    
44. last three hours. This, combined with earlier microwave and scatterometer
    
45. passes, gives high confidence in the location of the system.
    
46. 
    
47. Intensity was based on PAT and MET [with a D+] as DT not clear, despite
    
48. appearance of an eye, due to cirrus over the eye. The FT is also biased towards
    
49. the FT and CI = 4.5 by the overnight Ascat pass at 1336 UTC indicating winds of
    
50. 45-50 knots on the southern side and observations in the area of 40-50 knots.
    
51. 
    
52. The cyclone is located in a moist environment in a diffluent upper-level outflow
    
53. pattern just north of the upper level ridge. This is creating strong upper-level
    
54. divergence with twin outflow channels seen in recent satellite imagery. This, in
    
55. conjunction with the arrival of a strong east to southeasterly surge from a
    
56. developing ridge over Australia, has sustained continued development of the
    
57. cyclone.
    
58. 
    
59. Model consensus suggest the cyclone will move towards the west-southwest over
    
60. the next few days due to mid level ridges located to the south and east. On this
    
61. west-southwesterly track, the system is expected to remain in a low sheared
    
62. environment and in a diffluent upper pattern for about another 24 hours before
    
63. the shear increases.
    
64. 
    
65. From later Saturday, the cyclone is expected to move into this higher shear
    
66. environment due to a mid to upper level trough approaching from the west, with
    
67. dry air entrainment weakening the system to below Tropical Cyclone strength on
    
68. Sunday.
    
69. 
    
70. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
    
71. ==
    
72. The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 28/1400 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

複製代碼

BOM上看澳式C3

BOM命名為Frances

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 10.1 degrees South, 129.4 degrees East , 185 kilometres northwest of Pirlangimpi and 555 kilometres north northeast of Kalumburu .
Movement: west southwest at 16 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Frances is expected to intensify as it moves southwest through the Timor Sea. It is not expected to cause gales in coastal areas on Friday however if it takes a more southerly track gales may commence on the north Kimberley coast on Saturday

TCFA

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.4S 132.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1S 130.4E, APPROXIMATELY 265
NM NORTH OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
CONSTANT CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND A MOSTLY CIRCULAR
SHAPE. A 252209Z SSMIS 91GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE PASS AND A 251946Z
GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOW DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT HAS RAPIDLY BECOME LESS AND
LESS ELONGATED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN A MARGINAL BUT IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KNOTS), THAT IS BEING OFFSET BY STRONG
POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(30-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AND ARE SHOWING INTENSIFICATION AND CONSOLIDATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.