TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 121345 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE 950HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 19.7S 171.4E AT 121200 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR MTSAT IR
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 07
KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 90 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN E SEMICIRCLE,
WITHIN 080 NAUTICAL MILES IN W SEMICIRCLE.
EYE WELL DEFINED. EYE WARMING AND CLOUD TOPS COOLING PAST 6 HOURS.
ORGANIZATION GOOD. SST AROUND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD. SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN, OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W IN CMG RING
WITH EYE ADJUSTMENT YIELDS DT=6.5. MET=5.0 AND PT=5.5.FT BASED ON PT
THUS, YIELDING T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 22.0S 171.7E MOV S AT 12KT WITH 100KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 24.1S 172.8E MOV SSE AT 11KT WITH 95KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 25.2S 174.6E MOV SE AT 10KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC 25.0S 176.5E MOV ESE AT 10KT WITH 85KT
CLOSE TO
CENTRE.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON
WILL BE ISSUED AT OR AROUND 122000 UTC.
HURRICANE WARNING 009 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 120705 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE 960HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7 SOUTH
171.5 EAST AT 120600 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 18.7S 171.5E at 120600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT 06 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS BY
121200 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN E SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN W SEMICIRCLE.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 20.8S 171.6E AT 121800 UTC
AND NEAR 23.0S 172.2E AT 130600 UTC.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 110201 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 171.2E
AT 110000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR MTSAT IR IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 05 KTS. MAXIMUM 10
MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN N SEMICIRCLE,
WITHIN 090 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT.
DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH BANDS WRAPPING AROUND LLCC.
ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS TO 250HPA. SST AROUND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER
AN UPPER HIGH IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD. SYSTEM IS
BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY A NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER
MEANFLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.65 WRAP YIELDS DT=3.0. MET AND
PT AGREE. THUS, YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 17.1S 171.8E MOV SSE AT 07KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC 18.5S 172.3E MOV SSE AT 07KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 20.2S 172.9E MOV SSE AT 08KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 21.9S 173.8E MOV SSE AT 08KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO
CENTRE.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON
WILL BE ISSUED AT OR AROUND 110800 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 101338 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F CENTRE 998HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 170.8E
AT 101200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT IR IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. TD09F MOVING SOUTHEAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 07 KTS.
MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25
KNOTS.
DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH BANDS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC.
ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS TO 400HPA. SST AROUND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER
AN UPPER HIGH IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD. SYSTEM IS
BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTHEAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.35 WRAP YIELDS DT=2.0.
MET AND PT AGREE. THUS, YEILDING T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR TD09F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12
TO 18 HOURS IS TO HIGH.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 16.5S 171.6E MOV SSE AT 08KT WITH 35KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 17.9S 172.2E MOV SSE AT 07KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC 19.3S 172.8E MOV SSE AT 07KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 20.7S 173.3E MOV SSE AT 08KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD09F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
102000 UTC.
