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c789654|2011-9-30 19:27
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WTPN31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (NESAT) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 21.0N 106.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 106.6E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.1N 105.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 21.2N 103.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
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REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 106.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 20W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM EAST
OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 300558Z AMSU
IMAGE INDICATE THAT TS 20W MADE LANDFALL AT 30/05Z WITH A WELL-
DEFINED, TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
HOWEVER, INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP
CONVECTION DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THE MSI WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON THE RECENT OVER-WATER DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AND THE WELL ORGANIZED LLCC EVIDENT IN MSI. THUS FAR
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS REPORTED AT HANOI ARE ONLY 10-15 KNOTS WITH
SLP NEAR 1000 MB. TS 20W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD
AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24. THIS TRACK IS
SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z AND
010300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 22W (NALGAE) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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