t02436

JTWC評級Low

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.2S 156.9E, APPROXIMATELY 650 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW
CALEDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
COMPACT WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL WITH MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

t02436

JTWC提升評級至Medium

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.2S 156.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 155.0E, APPROXIMATELY 723 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE
SYSTEM. A 090439Z SSMI 37 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS CURVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY DATA SHOW A DEFINED CENTER, IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
ANALYZED POSITION, WITH 15 TO 20 KNOTS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
AND 20 TO 25 KNOTS TO THE SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT-MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

Potential Cyclones:

A slow moving low pressure system is currently located southeast of Papua New Guinea. Monsoon flow is expected to develop across the northern Coral Sea this week, which may result in some intensification of the system on Thursday and Friday. However, upper atmospheric conditions are not expected to be conducive for tropical cyclone development.

The low is expected to remain well offshore and forecast to move southeast later in the week. This system does not pose a threat to the Queensland coast.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Wednesday:Very low
Thursday: Low
Friday: Low



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:less than 5%Low:5% to 20%
Moderate:20 to 50%High:Over 50%
The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/

t02436

JTWC 18Z升格12P


BoM編號10U，預測12Z命名Tatiana

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0146 UTC 11/02/2016
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 16.5S
Longitude: 157.2E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: east [098 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 999 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:   
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1005 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  11/0600: 16.9S 157.7E:     055 [105]:  030  [055]: 1000
+12:  11/1200: 17.3S 158.2E:     070 [130]:  035  [065]:  997
+18:  11/1800: 17.8S 158.7E:     080 [150]:  040  [075]:  997
+24:  12/0000: 18.4S 159.1E:     095 [175]:  040  [075]:  994
+36:  12/1200: 19.7S 160.1E:     115 [210]:  045  [085]:  994
+48:  13/0000: 21.2S 160.7E:     135 [245]:  035  [065]:  996
+60:  13/1200: 22.7S 161.0E:     150 [280]:  030  [055]:  999
+72:  14/0000: 24.3S 161.2E:     170 [320]:  030  [055]:  998
+96:  15/0000: 25.5S 162.7E:     215 [400]:  030  [055]:  997
+120: 16/0000: 25.8S 164.5E:     300 [560]:  030  [055]:  996
REMARKS:
Location fix based primarily on animated visible imagery. The system has been
gaining in organisation, particularly in the past 12 hours, with curvature in
deep convection gradually improving. On the other hand, the deep convection
remains confined to the southwestern semi-circle, consistent with moderate N/NE
vertical wind shear over the system, consistent with CIMSS shear product. Dvorak
analysis based on shear pattern, with edge of deep convection over the low level
centre yields a DT of 3.0. Caution with using the shear pattern in development
stages suggests bias towards the PT of 2.5, hence the FT set at 2.5.  

Recent motion has been to the East at about 5 knots, primarily under the
influence of low level monsoon flow to the north, and a mid level shortwave
trough to the south. The system is expected to curve to the southeast in the
next 12 to 24 hours, as the shortwave trough to the south lifts out to the
southeast, a second shortwave trough develops over eastern Queensland, and some
indirect interaction with 11P east of Vanuatu develops, manifest as shortwave
low to mid level ridging developing between the two systems.

The system remains in an environment marginally supportive of further
development, ample ocean heat content, and moderate northerly vertical wind
shear persisting for the next 24 hours or so. This should lead to at least
modest further strengthening overnight into Friday. Following this, vertical
shear is forecast to increase over the system as the second stronger shortwave
trough over eastern Queensland spreads its influence over the system, which
should lead to a weakening or at least a loss of tropical characteristics during
Saturday.   

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 11/0700 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

t02436

BoM已經在06Z命名Tatiana，報文系統疑似出錯，命名報遲未發布。

t02436

00Z升格澳式C2，預測在18Z將達到顛峰，隨後將受到風切及乾空氣影響而減弱。

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0718 UTC 12/02/2016
Name: Tropical Cyclone Tatiana
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 18.3S
Longitude: 159.4E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [145 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 985 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: 3.5/3.5/S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm [390 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  12/1200: 19.2S 159.7E:     040 [080]:  055  [100]:  980
+12:  12/1800: 20.2S 159.5E:     055 [100]:  060  [110]:  976
+18:  13/0000: 21.0S 159.5E:     065 [125]:  050  [095]:  983
+24:  13/0600: 21.8S 159.6E:     080 [145]:  040  [075]:  990
+36:  13/1800: 23.8S 159.0E:     100 [180]:  030  [055]:  993
+48:  14/0600: 25.2S 158.7E:     120 [220]:  030  [055]:  988
+60:  14/1800: 25.6S 158.6E:     140 [255]:  030  [055]:  986
+72:  15/0600: 25.2S 158.7E:     155 [290]:  030  [055]:  990
+96:  16/0600: 23.8S 158.9E:     200 [370]:  025  [045]:  998
+120: 17/0600: 22.1S 159.3E:     290 [535]:  025  [045]:  999
REMARKS:
Tropical cyclone Tatiana is currently moving towards the southeast under the
combined influence of the monsoon flow to the north of the system and an upper
level trough to its southwest over the Coral Sea.  This approaching upper trough
should lead to Tatiana adopting a track more towards the south during Saturday.

The latest Dvorak analysis was based on a CDO pattern using the Himiwari
platform. FT was 3.5. Confidence in the location of the low level centre is
rated as fair. Intensity is set at 50kn [10 min mean] and is consistent with the
latest SATCON estimate of 52kn [1 min mean].

Tatiana has developed over the past 12 hours despite the presence of a 20 knots
vertical windshear from the northeast.  The system is in an otherwise favourable
environment with ample ocean heat content, and the approach of the upper trough
introduces the possibility of an isentropic assistance to development in the
next 12 hours. Thereafter vertical shear and dry mid-level air is expected to
weaken the system, which may lead to a rapid weakening or at least a loss of
tropical characteristics late Saturday.

Latest forecast guidance suggests a forecast track a little closer to the west
during Sunday. The system may remain as a deep low well offshore from the
southeast Qld coast during Sunday and Monday, before the remant circulation
weakens.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 12/1300 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

底層雖然破破的，但看來還是有要圍眼的趨勢:o

Meow

副熱帶:lol

Ex-tropical cyclone Tatiana has continued to weaken and has now decayed into a subtropical low pressure system. Ex-Tatiana should continue moving in a general southwards direction today, before stalling and turning back northwards on Monday.

Ex-tropical cyclone Tatiana is not expected to impact the Queensland coast directly, however it will generate powerful surf along the coast later today and on Monday in areas south of Sandy Cape, including the Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast.