B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.5S 43.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING WITH FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 311609Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS CURVED, FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATES 15
KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY
MODERATE-STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 43.0E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 43.7E, APPROXIMATELY 354 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING WITH FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 012207Z
GCOM 36 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS CURVED, FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATES 15
KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
OFFSET BY MODERATE-STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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