t02436

JTWC評級Low

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.2S 66.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 405 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 030005Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS AN AREA OF SHALLOW CONVECTION TO THE NORTH BEGINNING TO
WRAP INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINAL WITH HIGH (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING OFFSET
BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.