t02436

FMS在今天早上編號03F

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 23/2243 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD03F [1006HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 14.0S 179.7W AT
232100UTC. SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIOS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT PAST 12 HOURS. ORGANISATION HAS
SLIGHTLY IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH
AND JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500 HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND KEEP IT SLOW MOVING WITH
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 24/0906 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD03F [1005HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 14.9S 179.9W AT
240600UTC. SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIOS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT PAST 12 HOURS. ORGANISATION POOR.
SYSTEM LIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AND JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE
IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS UP TO 700 HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND KEEP IT SLOW MOVING WITH
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

t02436

JTWC提升評級到Medium

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.5S
178.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2S 179.5E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE AREA OF
SHARPEST TURNING. A RECENT 260946Z METOPA MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
INCREASING LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION WITH THE FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
LOCATED WITHIN THE DEVELOPING BANDING FEATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW BIAS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

Meow

新預測路徑已指向紐埃，雖然該國人口極少。