t02436

JTWC評級Low

  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.5N 89.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 565 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAK CURVED BANDING
BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO AN AREA OF PERSISTANT DEEP CONVECTION. A
130408Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS ONLY WEAK TROUGHING IN THE AREA. UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAIR, WITH MOSTLY NON-DIVERGENT FLOW, HOWEVER,
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW (05-10 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORABLE AT 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS. SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS ARE
DEVELOPING THIS DISTURBANCE INTO A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. DUE TO THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

alu

這個擾動就像BOB03 (96B) 一樣在一大片雲團中開始發展，還需要進一步的整和才有可能增強

甜心

97B低氣壓它的結構很特別南弱北強，而且由下列雲圖可以看見它中心正在登陸印度半島南方的島嶼當中但北方雲系卻比本體的雲系還旺盛。

它很可能在進入阿拉伯海後由北方雲系組成副中心取代原先的中心，因為目前阿拉伯海南方遠洋的大氣環境除了很乾燥以外風切也很大它本身應該會向北發展以維持本身的結構與組織。

alu

甜心 發表於 2015-11-15 15:26
97B低氣壓它的結構很特別南弱北強，而且由下列雲圖可以看見它中心正在登陸印尼半島南方的島嶼當中但北方雲 ...

你也幫幫忙，地理都不知道它中心準備登陸的地方是斯里蘭卡和印度好不好，那裏跟印尼相差那麼遠:@:funk::L

t02436

昨天晚上提升評級至Medium

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.8N 81.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 55 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH QUADRANT INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. A
161304Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE INDICATES IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC. A 160442Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED A
DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH ONLY 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS, HOWEVER, THE
CIRCULATION HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AND STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS NOW APPEAR TO BE WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE SHOWS A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK OVER WATER
THROUGH TAU 36, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.8N
81.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 81.1E, APPROXIMATELY 55 NM EAST OF
CHANNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH QUADRANT INTO THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. A 161304Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE INDICATES IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC. A 160442Z ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWED A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH ONLY 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS,
HOWEVER, THE CIRCULATION HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AND STRONGER
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS NOW APPEAR TO BE WRAPPING INTO
THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE SHOWS A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK OVER
WATER THROUGH TAU 36, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.