0908morakot

  一級颶風  
編號：12 L
名稱：Kate


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2015 年 11 月 08 日 09 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 11 月 09 日 20 時
撤編日期　　：2015 年 11 月 13 日 20 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ：65  kt ( CAT.1 )
海平面最低氣壓 ：985 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
94L.INVEST.20kts.1013mb.19N.67.6W


NHC:20%

2. An area of cloudiness and showers extending northward from the
east-central Caribbean Sea across the Dominican Republic and Puerto
Rico is associated with a surface trough.  There are no signs of
organization at this time, however some gradual development of
this disturbance is possible during the next few days while it
moves west-northwestward toward the southeastern and central
Bahamas.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
possible over the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, and the southeastern Bahamas during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

krichard2011

升格12L 後期上看45KT
只是對流方面仍消長有待加強

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 23.0N  73.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  09/1200Z 24.0N  74.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  10/0000Z 26.2N  76.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  10/1200Z 29.1N  75.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  11/0000Z 32.2N  71.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  12/0000Z...Absorbed by extratropical low

t02436

剛剛根據實測直接評價40節，命名Kate

000
WTNT62 KNHC 091319
TCUAT2

TROPICAL STORM KATE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122015
820 AM EST MON NOV 09 2015

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate that
Tropical Depression Twelve has strengthened to Tropical Storm Kate.
The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts.

SUMMARY OF 820 AM EST...1320 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 74.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM ESE OF CAT ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart

t02436

下午及晚上分別進行第二及第三次實測
補個數據
第二次實測
NOAA3 Mission #WA into KATE


第三次實測
AF307 Mission #03 into KATE


NHC 15Z評價60節，巔峰上望70節，預測兩天內轉化。

000
WTNT42 KNHC 101451
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122015
1000 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015

Data from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
investigating Kate this morning indicate that the storm has
continued to strengthen. The initial intensity is set to 60 kt based
on a peak SFMR wind of 61 kt from the Air Force aircraft. Given the
latest dropsonde data, the central pressure is estimated at 999 mb.
Kate's center continues to be embedded within a small CDO feature,
with aircraft data indicating some tilt to the circulation,
consistent with 15 to 20 kt of southwesterly shear analyzed over
the cyclone.

Despite increasing shear and cooling SSTs along the track, all of
the guidance continues to suggest that Kate will strengthen during
the next 24-36 hours, likely due in part to very cold temperatures
aloft. The NHC forecast follows this trend, and is above the
guidance in the short range given the initial intensity, and shows
Kate peaking at 70 kt in 24 to 36 hours. As the shear increases to
over 40 kt, Kate should lose tropical characteristics by 48 hours
and then weaken as it becomes fully extratropical by 72 hours. The
official forecast carries Kate as the dominant feature through 5
days as it interacts with another extratropical low over the north
Atlantic.

Kate continues to accelerate, with an initial motion estimate of
035/18. A further acceleration toward the east-northeast is
forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours as Kate becomes fully
embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. A slowing of the forward
speed is expected in 48 to 72 hours while Kate interacts with an
upper-level trough during extratropical transition, followed by a
faster northwestward motion over the north Atlantic at the end of
the forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is largely an update
of the previous one. This forecast is close to the latest GFS track
through 48 hours and a little to the north of that model afterward.

The extratropical portion of Kate's forecast was coordinated with
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 30.2N  74.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  11/0000Z 32.5N  71.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  11/1200Z 35.3N  64.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
36H  12/0000Z 37.8N  56.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  12/1200Z 40.5N  51.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H  13/1200Z 42.0N  47.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  14/1200Z 47.0N  36.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  15/1200Z 55.5N  22.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brennan

移動速度相當地快....

t02436

09Z升C1，預測明天轉化

000
WTNT42 KNHC 110906
TCDAT2

HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122015
500 AM AST WED NOV 11 2015

The overall structure of Kate has again not changed much in
conventional satellite imagery since the previous advisory, with the
center in an area of strong convection.  However, a just received
AMSR microwave overpass shows that the convective banding has become
better defined near the center.  Based on this and satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB of 65 kt, Kate is upgraded to
a hurricane.

The initial motion is 055/35.  Kate is now embedded in the
westerlies between the subtropical ridge and a baroclinic low near
New England.  The tropical cyclone should continue a general
east-northeastward motion across the North Atlantic for the next
several days.  However, a decrease in forward speed and some
erratic motion are expected around 36-48 hours as Kate interacts
with, and eventually absorbs, the baroclinic low.  Despite the
complexity added by the merger, the track guidance is in excellent
agreement with only a small spread in direction and speed.  The new
forecast track is a little north of the previous track and lies
near the various consensus models.

A combination of increasing shear and decreasing sea surface
temperatures should prevent any additional intensification.  Kate
should begin extratropical transition in 12-24 hours and complete it
by 36 hours as the cyclone absorbs the baroclinic low.  The
resulting extratropical low is forecast to be absorbed by a front
over the north Atlantic in 4 to 5 days.

The extratropical portion of Kate's forecast was coordinated with
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0900Z 36.0N  65.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  11/1800Z 38.1N  59.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  12/0600Z 40.8N  53.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
36H  12/1800Z 42.3N  50.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H  13/0600Z 42.5N  47.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  14/0600Z 46.5N  36.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  15/0600Z 54.0N  22.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

alu

甜心

:o這隻颶風的結構並不差只可惜現在北半球正在進入冬季了，目前的大氣環境不利於它維持熱帶氣旋的特性加上那邊冬天鋒面低壓很旺盛就造就了它將被牽引北上轉化的命運。