0908morakot

  熱帶低壓  
編號：02 P ( 02 F )
名稱：無


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2015 年 10 月 13 日 12 時
JTWC升格日期:2015 年 10 月 16 日 02 時
撤編日期　　：2015 年 10 月 18 日 14 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
斐濟氣象局 (FMS)：25 kt ( TD )
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：40 kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓   ：1001 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
91PINVEST.25kts-1004mb-10.3S-174.7E

FMS 22Z編號02F

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Oct 12/2207 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 02F CENTRE [1005HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 9.8S 173.9E
AT 122100UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON VIS MTSAT IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. ORGANISATION
REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500 HPA.  SST IS AROUND
29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

SOME GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTHWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

以上資料來自：FMS、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

JTWC直接評級Medium

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST AREA 91P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.3S 174.7E, APPROXIMATELY 475 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED BUT
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. A 122113Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWED AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS DO
NOT SHOW DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

Meow

再次評級Medium……

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.6S 175.6E
(INVEST 91P), APPROXIMATELY 375 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING
SYMMETRIC CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER AS SEEN IN A 140926Z ASCAT BULLSEYE. A 141226Z
GPM 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS WELL DEFINED SPIRAL BANDING WITH
THE BULK OF CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. THE
DISTURBANCE IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR BEING OFFSET BY AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

Meow

美國編號02P了，現在太平洋南北都有（JTWC認定）熱帶氣旋。:lol

t02436

中心裸露，將逐漸轉化為溫帶低壓




FMS跟JTWC都在18Z發出FW，02F無緣命名。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Oct 17/1951 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F CENTRE [1004HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3S
173.8E AT 171800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHWARDS AT ABOUT 16
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

CONVECTION HAS DECREASED AND SHEARED FROM LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS NOT
IMPROVED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER
RIDGE IN HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW FAIR TO THE SOUTH BUT
RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST AROUND 26 DEGREE CELSIUS.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.2 WRAP YIELDS DT 1.5, MET AND PT AGREES.
THUS YIELDING T1.5/2.0/W0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWESTWARD WITH
NO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS LOW.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC 20.6S 173.4E MOV S AT 12 KT WITH 25 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 181800 UTC 22.1S 174.1E MOV SSE AT 09 KT WITH 20
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 190600 UTC 22.8S 175.3E MOV ESE AT 07 KT WITH 20
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 191800 UTC 22.9S 176.4E MOV ESE AT 05 KT WITH 20
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY FOR TD02F.