0908morakot

  中度颱風  
編號：1525 ( 25 W )
名稱：薔琵 ( Champi )


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2015 年 10 月 12 日 14 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 10 月 14 日 02 時
轉化日期　　：2015 年 10 月 25 日 20 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB)：48 m/s ( 15 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：45 m/s ( 90 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：130 kts ( CAT.4 )
                                                   
最低氣壓與暴風圈半徑
海平面最低氣壓： 930 百帕
七級風半徑　　： 250 公里
十級風半徑　　： 80   公里

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
92W.INVEST.15kts.1000mb.11.5N.165.5E



以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

JTWC評級Low

(2)  AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST AREA 92W) HAS PERSISTED
NEAR 11.8N 164.4E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN
ATOLL. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SCATTEROMETRY INDICATES THIS DISTURBANCE
IS LOCATED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH, WHICH EXTENDS EASTWARD TO THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
IS INDICATED IN SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.

渦度和91W都有泛白跡象...

正宜27

jma預測24小時後增強為T.D

t02436

JTWC發布TCFA


補21Z升評Medium報

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST AREA 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.8N 164.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 162.6E, APPROXIMATELY 350
NM NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI, FSM. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDS ON THE NORTH SIDE HAVE DEEPENED AND
CONSOLIDATED FURTHER EVEN AS THE ONES TO THE SOUTH HAVE WEAKENED AND
BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED. SCATTEROMETRY INDICATES THIS DISTURBANCE
IS LOCATED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH, WHICH EXTENDS EASTWARD TO THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS. OVERALL, THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED AS THE CONVECTIVE
BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE DISTURBANCE IS IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05-
10 KNOTS) VWS AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IS INDICATED IN SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

t02436

JTWC 06Z升格25W





初報暫時上望70節

正宜27

25號颱風薔琵生成了

台風第25号 (チャンパー)
平成27年10月14日03時55分 発表
<14日03時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        マーシャル諸島
中心位置        北緯 13度25分(13.4度)
        東経 158度35分(158.6度)
進行方向、速さ        西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧        1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
15m/s以上の強風域        全域 330km(180NM)
<14日15時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        マーシャル諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 14度10分(14.2度)
        東経 156度25分(156.4度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧        998hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        90km(50NM)
<15日03時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        トラック諸島近海
予報円の中心        北緯 14度55分(14.9度)
        東経 154度20分(154.3度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧        996hPa
中心付近の最大風速        20m/s(40kt)
最大瞬間風速        30m/s(60kt)
予報円の半径        140km(75NM)