1522 彩虹近岸猛爆增強十月登陸中國最強颱風

0908morakot · 2015-9-28 13:05

  中度颱風
編號：1522 ( 22 W )
名稱：彩虹 ( Mujigae )

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2015 年 09 月 28 日 12 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 10 月 02 日 02 時
停編日期　　：2015 年 10 月 05 日 08 時
登陸地點　　：菲律賓呂宋島
                        中國廣東省湛江市坡頭區

  巔峰時期資料
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB)：43 m/s ( 14 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：40 m/s ( 75 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：115 kts ( CAT.4 )

最低氣壓與暴風圈半徑
海平面最低氣壓： 945 百帕
七級風半徑　　： 180 公里
十級風半徑　　： 50   公里

  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
90W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.8.5N.146E

以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436 · 2015-9-30 08:55

JTWC直接評級Medium

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.1N 131.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 292029Z RSCAT
PARTIAL IMAGE DEPICTS A WEAK CIRCULATION POSITIONED ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF A BAND OF STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS. A 292106Z SSMIS
IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH
QUADRANT INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY DIFFLUENT FLOW.
DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
TOWARD THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

正宜27 · 2015-9-30 08:58

jtwc評級為MEDIUM

t02436 · 2015-9-30 10:26

JMA升格熱帶性低氣壓

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 11N 131E WEST SLOWLY.

t02436 · 2015-9-30 13:24

JTWC發佈TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 300530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
250 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.4N 131.4E TO 15.4N 121.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 300300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.8N 130.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.1N
131.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 130.4E, APPROXIMATELY 575 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING AND WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
TURNING. A 300053Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS THE OUTER PERIPHERIES OF AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT
WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EASTERLY DIFFLUENT
FLOW. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS TOWARD THE PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
010530Z.
//
NNNN