0908morakot

  熱帶低壓  
編號：09 L
名稱：無


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2015 年 09 月 13 日 21 時
升格低壓日期：2015 年 09 月 16 日 23 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 09 月 20 日 00 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ：30  kt ( TD )
海平面最低氣壓 ：1006 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
93L.INVEST.20kts.1012mb.10.2N.34.5W


NHC:50%

1. A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is
producing a large area of disturbed weather several hundred miles
southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.  Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression
could form during the next few days days while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward across the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

NHC升格09L 但不看好命名

000
WTNT44 KNHC 161434
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092015
1100 AM AST WED SEP 16 2015

Organized convection associated with the area of low pressure in the
central tropical Atlantic has now increased to the point that the
system is considered a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is 25
kt based on the latest Dvorak classifications and in agreement with
earlier ASCAT wind data. Some southwesterly shear is already
affecting the cyclone, with most of the convection displaced east
and north of the estimated center position. The environment only
becomes less favorable from this point forward, with the shear
forecast to quickly increase in 12 to 24 hours and remain high
through the remainder of the forecast period. In addition, the
southwesterly flow aloft will bring dry mid- to upper-level air over
the cyclone. As a result, only slight strengthening is shown in the
NHC forecast following the trend of most of the intensity guidance.
The cyclone is expected to weaken to a remnant low by 72 hours.
After that time, the GFS and ECMWF models show the system weakening
and perhaps opening up into a trough in about 5 days, so the
official forecast shows dissipation at that time.

The initial motion estimate is 340/07, as the depression is moving
into a weakness in the Atlantic subtropical ridge. This north-
northwestward to northwestward motion should continue for the next
2 to 3 days, with a turn toward the west-northwest forecast by 96
hours as the shallow cyclone comes under the steering influence of
the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast is close to
the middle of the guidance envelope and near a blend of the GFS and
ECMWF forecasts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 15.0N  43.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
12H  17/0000Z 16.0N  43.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
24H  17/1200Z 17.3N  44.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  18/0000Z 18.5N  44.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  18/1200Z 19.7N  45.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
72H  19/1200Z 22.0N  47.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  20/1200Z 24.0N  50.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan