1514 莫拉菲轉化溫氣美軍一度判定為副熱帶氣旋

0908morakot · 2015-8-5 14:47

本帖最後由 asus5635 於 2015-9-19 12:06 編輯

  輕度颱風
編號：1514 ( 15 W )
名稱：莫拉菲 ( Molave )

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2015 年 08 月 05 日 14 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 08 月 07 日 20 時
轉化日期　　：2015 年 08 月 14 日 08 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB)：23 m/s (  9 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：23 m/s ( 45 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)  ：50  kts  ( TS )

最低氣壓與暴風圈半徑
海平面最低氣壓： 985 百帕
七級風半徑　　： 100 公里
十級風半徑　　：   -    公里

  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
96W.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.17N.148E

以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

powerng · 2015-8-5 18:21

如副高不南落,96w重走13w舊路,台灣可能2連擊。
如有錯請糾正。

t02436 · 2015-8-5 23:12

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2015-8-5 23:14 編輯

JMA12Z升格TD
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 17N 149E ALMOST STATIONARY.

JTWC評級Low

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.9N 147.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 320 NM NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED EIR DEPICTS A
LARGE AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ILL-DEFINED
LLCC. A 051118Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE BROADLY WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VWS AND GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

t02436 · 2015-8-6 08:23

JTWC提升評級至Medium

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.9N
147.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 148.5E, APPROXIMATELY 316 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSON AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION. A
051956Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC
TURNING WITH CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
MODERATELY FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. CURRENTLY, A TUTT CELL TO
THE NORTH IS IMPINGING ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT; HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE TUTT
CELL MOVES WEST. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO
ITS IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

正宜27 · 2015-8-6 14:33

jtwc發布TCFA

t02436 · 2015-8-6 15:39

JMA發布GW!

熱帯低気圧
平成27年08月06日16時30分発表

<06日15時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域マリアナ諸島
中心位置北緯 17度55分(17.9度)
東経 149度50分(149.8度)
進行方向、速さ北北西ゆっくり
中心気圧 1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<07日15時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域南鳥島近海
予報円の中心北緯 20度20分(20.3度)
東経 148度50分(148.8度)
進行方向、速さ北北西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧 996hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 220km(120NM)