0908morakot

  熱帶低壓  
編號：08 E
名稱：無


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2015 年 07 月 25 日 22 時
升格熱低日期：2015 年 07 月 28 日 05 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 07 月 31 日 22 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速： 30   kt ( TD )
海平面最低氣壓：1007 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
90E.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.8N.120W


NHC:0%

1. An area of low pressure more than a thousand miles south-southwest
of the Baja California peninsula is associated with a tropical wave.
Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical
depression could form by middle of next week as the low moves
westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

風場掃出30節風力
NHC於21Z升格08E
初報也不太看好發展
接近夏威夷前就會減弱

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 272055
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
200 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

The low pressure system located more than 1000 n mi west-southwest
of the Baja California peninsula has finally acquired enough
persistent deep convection near the center for it to be upgraded to
a tropical depression.  An 1831 UTC ASCAT-B overpass indicated a
well-defined circulation center and inner-core wind field containing
several 30-31 kt surface wind vectors at a distance of 35-40 nmi to
the northeast and southeast of the center. Although the depression
is a sheared tropical cyclone, a T2.0/30 kt Dvorak satellite
classification from TAFB also justifies upgrading the low to a
tropical depression at this time.

The initial motion estimate is 290/14 kt, which is based primarily
on microwave and ASCAT satellite fixes.  The NHC model guidance is
in good agreement on the tropical cyclone moving toward the
west-northwest at 12-14 kt for the next 72 hours or so due to a
strong deep-layer ridge locate to its north.  After that, however,
the guidance diverges significantly with the ECMWF model taking a
very weak cyclone or trough west-southwestward, the GFS and HWRF
models moving the system westward, while the GFS-ensemble mean and
the remainder of the models keep the depression on a slower
west-northwestward track.  The NHC official forecast track basically
lies down the middle of the guidance suite throughout the forecast
period and is close to the consensus model TVCE.

The cyclone is not expected to intensify much due to persistent
moderate northwesterly vertical wind shear and the cyclone moving
over marginal sea-surface temperatures after 72 hours.  There will
also likely be occasional intrusions of drier and more stable air,
which lies just to the north of the forecast track, into the
cyclone.  However, the well-established southerly low-level inflow
of unstable air should help to maintain enough convection to keep
this system as a tropical cyclone throughout the forecast period.
The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the ICON consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 15.6N 126.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  28/0600Z 16.1N 128.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  28/1800Z 16.6N 130.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  29/0600Z 17.0N 132.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  29/1800Z 17.3N 134.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
72H  30/1800Z 17.9N 139.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
96H  31/1800Z 18.2N 145.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  01/1800Z 18.4N 151.3W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

甜心

:o其實這隻擾動熱低的螺旋看起來還很不錯啦，只是結構跟發展就有點...感覺像是要淡化了一樣可能是受到乾空氣影響吧整體上總覺得看起來很不協調。