03L.Claudette 非正報火速升格並命名

0908morakot · 2015-7-12 13:59

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2015-7-15 23:45 編輯

  熱帶風暴
編號：03 L
名稱：Claudette

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2015 年 07 月 12 日 13 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 07 月 14 日 00 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 07 月 15 日 20 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料
近中心最強風速： 45   kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓：1004 百帕

  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
92L.INVEST.20kts.1012mb.35.4N.74.2W

NHC:20%

1. A non-tropical low pressure system has moved off of the east coast
of the United States and is located about 70 miles east of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina. Although showers and thunderstorms have
become concentrated near the center of the low, environmental
conditions are expected to only be marginally conducive for
development of a subtropical or tropical cyclone during the next
day or so while the low moves eastward and then northeastward away
from the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436 · 2015-7-14 01:13

稍早因風場掃出40節
NHC 於1630Z 左右迅速升格03L並命名Claudette

000
WTNT43 KNHC 131703
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL    AL032015
100 PM AST MON JUL 13 2015

The small low pressure area that moved off the coast of North
Carolina over the weekend has lost its frontal characteristics and
acquired organized deep convection overnight.  The convection,
albeit primarily over the eastern semicircle of the sheared system,
has persisted for more the 12 hours.  Recent ASCAT data indicated
that the cyclone has maximum winds of 40 to 45 kt and a well-defined
circulation.  Based on these data, advisories are being initiated on
Tropical Storm Claudette, the third tropical storm of the 2015
Atlantic hurricane season.

Claudette is expected to be a short-lived tropical cyclone since
it will be moving over much cooler waters and into an area of
increasing southwesterly shear tonight.  The cyclone could
strengthen slightly in the very near term, but is expected to
weaken later tonight and become post-tropical shortly thereafter.
The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to dissipate within 2 to 3
days as it accelerates northeastward. The global models are in good
agreement, and the NHC track forecast is near the middle of the
tightly clustered guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1700Z 37.4N  68.1W 45 KT  50 MPH
12H  14/0000Z 38.5N  66.8W 45 KT  50 MPH
24H  14/1200Z 41.0N  64.0W 40 KT  45 MPH
36H  15/0000Z 43.9N  61.2W 35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H  15/1200Z 47.2N  58.5W 30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown