martin191919

  一級熱帶氣旋  
編號：01 U ( 17 F / 25 P )
名稱：Raquel


  基本資料     
擾動編號日期：2015 年 06 月 25 日 12 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 07 月 01 日 03 時
撤編日期　　：2015 年 07 月 06 日 12 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 /海平面最低氣壓
澳洲氣象局 (BoM) :  45   kt
美國海軍 (JTWC)   :  45   kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓    ：990 百帕

   討論帖圖片   
90P INVEST 150625 0000   5.0S  163.0E SHEM   15   NA


以上資料來自：BoM、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

JTWC 評級Low

(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.5N 163.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 323 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KIRAKIRA, SOLOMON ISLANDS.
ANIMATED EIR DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
A DEVELOPING LLCC. A 251018Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A 15 TO 20 KNOT
CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER (25 TO 30 KNOT) WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED
IN A LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15) VWS AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, WARM SSTS IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

martin191919

取消評級

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.5S
163.8E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

t02436

JTWC再度評級Low

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.4S 162.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 815 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS SLIGHTLY SHEARED FROM AN ILL-
DEFINED LLCC. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A 280413Z 37GHZ SSSMI
MICROWAVE PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (15-20
KNOT) VWS THAT IS OFFSET BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE WEAK DEVELOPMENT IN 72-96 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

FMS稍早編號17F

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jun 28/0924 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 17F CENTER [1007HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 05.0S
163.0E AT 280600UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD17F MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER A UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
ORGANISATION IS POOR WITH CONVECTION PERSISTANT AND DISPLACED FROM
SUPPOSED LLCC IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SST IS AROUND 30 DEGRESS
CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A WESTWARDS MOVEMENT WITH SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

Meow

斐濟和美國都比較看好會發展了。如果17F真在明天命名並維持到下個月，那就會創造很多歷史記錄。

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jun 28/2349 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 17F CENTER [1004HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 03.7S
162.6E AT 282100UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD17F SLOW MOVING.

THE SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ORGANISATION IS POOR WITH CONVECTION PERSISTANT
AND DISPLACED FROM SUPPOSED LLCC IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. SST IS
AROUND 30 DEGRESS CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A WESTWARDS MOVEMENT WITH SOME
INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

Meow

若所羅門群島預測成真，明晚就會命名。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WATCH ADVICE NUMBER THREE

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WATCH ADVICE NUMBER THREE  ISSUED BY THE SOLOMON ISLANDS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE AT 5:00 PM ON MONDAY, 29TH JUNE 2015.

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WATCH ADVICE IS CURRENT FOR ALL PROVINCES.

AT 4:00 PM THIS AFTERNOON, A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 HECTOPASCALS WAS LOCATED NEAR 4.1 DEGREES LATITUDE SOUTH AND 161.9 DEGREES LONGITUDE EAST AND THIS IS APPROXIMATELY 265 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MALAITA ISLAND.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT 09 KNOT AND INTENSIFYING.

EXPECT MEAN MAXIMUM WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

GALES  WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS COULD DEVELOP ABOUT THE MALAITA, ISABEL, WESTERN, CENTRAL AND GUADALCANAL PROVINCES ON WEDNESDAY, DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. HEAVY RAIN, WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OR LANDSLIDES, MAY OCCUR OVER THESE PROVINCES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SEAS WILL BE MODERATE TO ROUGH WITH MODERATE SWELLS AND COASTAL FLOODING WITH HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.

PEOPLE SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES AS BAD WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION POSES THREATS TO LIVES AND PROPERTIES.

PLEASE LISTEN TO ALL RADIO OUTLETS FOR FURTHER ADVICES.

THE NEXT ADVICE WILL BE ISSUED AT 1:30AM TOMORROW MORNING.

DATE: 29TH JUNE 2015.

t02436

JTWC發布TCFA


風場掃出30節

Meow

JTWC即將編號25P。

TPPS10 PGTW 301227

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P (E OF SOLOMON IS)

B. 30/1132Z

C. 4.88S

D. 159.59E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .25 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. PT AGREES. MET YIELDS A 2.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   30/0826Z  4.58S  160.10E  SSMS


   UEHARA