0908morakot

  輕度颱風  
編號：1508 ( 08 W )
名稱： 鯨魚 ( Kujira )


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2015 年 06 月 18 日 08 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 06 月 21 日 08 時
停編日期　　：2015 年 06 月 25 日 02 時
登陸地點　　：中國 海南省 萬寧市
                         越南 海防市

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB)：23 m/s (  9 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：20 m/s ( 40 kt )
美國海軍 (JTWC)  ：45  kts  ( TS )
                                                   
最低氣壓與暴風圈半徑
海平面最低氣壓： 988 百帕
七級風半徑　　： 100 公里
十級風半徑　　： - 公里

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
91W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.14N.113.5E


以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

JTWC評級Low

  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.6N 113.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 385 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION FORMING
OVER A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN AN 181811Z AMSU
PASS. AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED TO THE SOUTH OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
OUTFLOW TOWARD AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST IS SUPPORTING
RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES EQUATORWARD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 30 TO 31 DEGREES CELSIUS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT SLOW
CONSOLIDATION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE BROAD
LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE AND LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CIRCULATION
CENTER, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

adrian

中 國 東 南 部 上 空 的 反 氣 旋 會 在 今 明 兩 日 逐 漸 減 弱 。 而 位 於 南 海 中 部 的 一 個 廣 闊 低 壓 區 會 在 未 來 數 天 逐 漸 增 強 並 向 北 移 動 ， 在 下 週 初 為 華 南 沿 岸 地 區 帶 來 狂 風 驟 雨 。

甜心

:)由於中央氣象局等氣象單位預測下週一開始太平洋高壓會有增強西伸的情形所以預測它不會直接影響我們臺灣地區天氣，不過因為後期受到太平洋高壓牽引它預估將延著高壓勢力邊緣北上影響港澳地區。

t02436

JTWC提升評級至Medium

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.6N
113.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 112.9E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD, BUT DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FLARING CURVED CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. A
190210Z METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE FURTHER SHOWS THE LIMITED
CONVECTION WEST OF A WEAK LLCC. A 190211Z SCATTEROMETER PARTIAL PASS
SHOWS THAT THE ENHANCED WESTERLY WINDS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH HAVE
STARTED TO WRAP ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. LOW
(5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT;
HOWEVER, LIMITED TO MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS PREVENTING
SUSTAINED CONVECTION. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MINIMAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED
DEFINITION OF THE LLCC AND MODERATELY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

Meow

JMA直接編熱低。



TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 15N 112E NORTH SLOWLY.

ben811018

位於南海的９１Ｗ已增強為熱帶性低氣壓，受惠西南季風水氣持續支援，
環流雲系相當廣泛，強度有逐漸增強的趨勢，是否成為第八號颱風「鯨　魚」仍有待觀察。


以目前資料研判，９１Ｗ將沿著副高壓邊緣往北北西進行，
將在下週一起接近中國華南沿海地區，同時將引導西南季風北上，
對台灣雖無直接影響，但西南季風將帶來豐沛水氣，西半部降雨有增加的機會。

martin191919

TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9N 111.8E TO 18.5N 110.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 200000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.6N 111.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.1N
112.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 111.6E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS IMPROVING CONVECTIVE
BANDING, ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
ELONGATED LLCC. A 202257Z WINDSAT IMAGES SHOWS THAT THE MAJORITY OF
WINDS NOT LOCATED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION ARE BETWEEN 15 AND 20
KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT OFF-
SETTING THE 10 TO 20 KNOTS OF VWS. MODEL DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM
IS MARGINAL, DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM AS AN EFFECT OF THE SURGE EVENT
OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON
IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
210300Z.//
NNNN