0908morakot

  熱帶風暴  
編號：02 L
名稱：Bill

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2015 年 06 月 13 日 20 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 06 月 16 日 11 時
轉化日期　　：2015 年 06 月 21 日 17 時
登陸地點　　：美國 德克薩斯州

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速：  50   kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓： 997 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
91L.INVEST.25kts.1009mb.17N.88.4W

NHC:20%
1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased across the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas in association with a trough
of low pressure that has recently formed at the surface. This system
is expected to move across the Yucatan peninsula later today and
into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by late tomorrow. Environmental
conditions could support slow development of this system during the
next few days while it moves generally northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

第一次飛機實測結束
系統北側測得最大風速35節






NHC預計今天晚上進行第二次實測

1. Data from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that a broad area of low pressure has formed in association
with the surface trough and upper-level low over the south-central
Gulf of Mexico.  However, the low's circulation is not well-defined,
and the current shower and thunderstorm activity remains somewhat
disorganized.  The aircraft also found a large area of tropical
storm force winds well to the north and northeast of the low.
Upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more favorable
while this system moves northwestward during the next couple of days
across the western Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical depression or
tropical storm could form during that time. Another Hurricane
Hunter aircraft will investigate this system Monday morning.

Interests in and along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.  Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of
the middle and upper Texas coast and the western Louisiana coast
Monday night and Tuesday.  There is also a risk of heavy rainfall
and possible flooding across portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana.  For additional information, please see High Seas
Forecasts and products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

美國海軍發佈TCFA

t02436

晚間12Z啟動第二次飛機實測
測得最大風速50節




補充:






美國海軍12Z評價40節
NHC尚未升格



自動更新:AF301 Mission #02

t02436

NHC持續維持High評，仍未升格
但表示若系統組織持續轉好
今天就有機會命名Bill

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Surface observations and preliminary data from an Air Force Reserve
Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating the area of
low pressure located about 200 miles southeast of the middle Texas
coast indicate that the center has become better defined since
earlier today.  If these trends continue, advisories will be
initiated later this evening on Tropical Storm Bill.

1. Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds with
the low are near 50 mph.  Interests in and along the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this
system as it moves northwestward toward the Texas coast.  Regardless
of tropical cyclone formation, tropical storm conditions are likely
along portions of the middle and upper Texas coast, and possible in
extreme southwestern Louisiana, tonight and Tuesday. The system is
also likely to bring heavy rainfall with possible flooding across
portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana.  For additional
information, please see High Seas Forecasts and products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

第三次飛機實測進行中
測得最大風速超過50節

賽洛瑪

t02436

NHC升格02L並命名Bill
預計明天登陸

000
WTNT42 KNHC 160210
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022015
1000 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
surface observations indicate that the circulation associated with
the low located in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico has become better
defined since earlier today.  While the circulation still appears to
be somewhat elongated, the center is defined enough to consider the
system a tropical cyclone, and advisories are being initiated on
Tropical Storm Bill at this time.

The aircraft data indicate an area of 40-45 kt winds north and
east of the center, and the initial intensity is set to 45 kt for
this advisory.  Given the relatively broad nature of the system, the
large radius of maximum winds, and the somewhat ragged convective
pattern, only a little strengthening is expected before the center
reaches the coast tomorrow, and the NHC intensity forecast is close
to the latest SHIPS and LGEM guidance.  After landfall Bill is
expected to weaken to a depression after 24 hours, and the low-level
circulation is forecast to dissipate by 48 hours following the GFS
and ECMWF solutions.  Note that the global models subsequently show
the low- to mid-level remnants of Bill moving northward and then
northeastward ahead of an upper trough into the southern Plains and
mid-Mississippi Valley.

The initial motion estimate is a relatively uncertain 320/10 given
the recent formation of the center.  The primary steering mechanism
is a mid-level anticyclone centered over the southeastern United
States, which should result in Bill moving northwestward toward the
Texas coast in the next 12 hours and then inland over south-central
Texas.  The track model guidance is in generally good agreement
through landfall.  The NHC track forecast is close to a blend of the
latest model fields from the UKMET, ECMWF, and GFS models and is a
little to the left of the multi-model consensus.  It is important
not to focus on the exact track of the center, given the large area
across which heavy rains and tropical storm conditions are expected
to occur.

Given this forecast, a tropical storm warning has been issued for
much of the middle and upper Texas coast.  However, the main hazard
associated with Bill and its remnants will be heavy rainfall and
flooding across portions of eastern Texas.  Please see products from
your local National Weather Service office for more information on
the flooding hazard.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 27.1N  94.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  16/1200Z 28.3N  95.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  17/0000Z 29.7N  97.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
36H  17/1200Z 31.5N  98.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
48H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$

t02436

第四次飛機實測進行中






補充:




中心已在近海，即將登陸






Corpus Christi 雷達動畫


休士頓雷達動畫


自動更新
實測數據
AF308 Mission #04 into BILL




雷達動畫
休士頓


Corpus Christi