Meow

  氣旋風暴  
編號：ARB 01 ( 01A )
名稱：Ashobaa


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2015 年 06 月 03 日 20 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 06 月 08 日 14 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 06 月 15 日 08 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
印度氣象局 (IMD)：45 kt
美國海軍 (JTWC) ：55 kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓   ：990 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
95A.INVEST.15kts.NAmb.8.5N.65.7E


以上資料來自：IMD、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

Meow

GFS預報高強度接近阿曼並間接影響阿拉伯聯合大公國。

t02436

JTWC 18Z評級Low

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.6N 68.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 715 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING, ALBEIT
DISORGANIZED, AREA OF CONVECTION WITH A POORLY-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS IN AN
AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. NUMERIC
WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING THIS AREA INTO
A 35-KNOT SYSTEM IN AS EARLY AS 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

t02436

JTWC發布TCFA

WTIO21 PGTW 061100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8N 68.8E TO 16.6N 67.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 060600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.3N 68.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7N
68.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 68.6E, APPROXIMATELY 415 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM, ALBEIT WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION,
SLIGHTLY SHEARED WESTWARD OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. A 060932 AMSU-
B IMAGE SHOWS THE LIMITED OVERALL DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM, BUT SHOWS THE FORMATIVE BANDING STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MARGINAL (10-
20 KNOT) VWS AND GOOD OVERALL DIVERGENCE. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK
SSTS IN THE ARABIAN ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. NUMERICAL
MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS, BASED ON OVERAL STRUCTURE
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
071100Z.//
NNNN

蜜露

型態已經完整很多.  不久後將升格.

北印是比較嚴格的.命名還要在等


預報上會認為會進入阿曼海.

到了阿曼海.強度上估計不會太強

t02436

IMD編號ARB01
預估24小時內增強到深低壓

Time of issue: 1130 hours IST
Dated: 07.06.2015
Bulletin No.: ARB01/2015/01
Sub:  Depression over eastcentral Arabian Sea.  
  Latest satellite imagery and observations indicate that a depression has formed over eastcentral Arabian Sea and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of today, the 07th June, 2015 near latitude 14.50 N and longitude 68.50 E, about 690 km southwest of Mumbai, 740 km south- southwest of Veraval and 1230 km southeast of Masirah Island (Oman). It would move north- northwestwards and intensify further into a deep depression during next 24 hrs.   Strong winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail along and off Maharashtra, Konkan and Goa coasts during next 48 hrs. Sea condition would be rough along and off Maharashtra, Konkan and Goa coasts during the same period.  Fishermen along and off Maharashtra, Konkan and Goa coasts are advised to be cautious while venturing into the sea during next 48 hours.

   
The next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of today, the 7th June, 2015.

t02436

JTWC 06Z升格01A
初報上望C1

Meow

阿曼灣聚集油輪，預測路徑可能影響國際經濟，然而之前標題竟然又被改成「螺旋隱現」了。只要看到「螺旋隱現」，就是版主改的，因為我從來不說啥「螺旋隱現」，一個低壓本來就是「螺旋隱現」。