t02436

  強烈颱風  
編號：1506( 06 W )
名稱：紅霞 ( Noul )



  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2015 年 04 月 30 日 13 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 05 月 04 日 02 時
轉化日期　　：2015 年 05 月 12 日 17 時
登陸地點　　：無
颱風警報統計：海上警報 13 報

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB)： 51  m/s ( 16 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ： 55  m/s ( 105 kt )
美國海軍 (JTWC)  ：140 kts ( CAT.5 )
                                                   
最低氣壓與暴風圈半徑
海平面最低氣壓：925 百帕
七級風半徑　　：200 公里
十級風半徑　　： 80  公里

  測站資料  
台灣
台東 蘭　嶼：陣風 49.3m/s (2015/05/11)

日本
沖繩 下　地：陣風 58.6m/s (2015/05/12)
沖繩 宮古島：陣風 42.7m/s (2015/05/12)

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
92W.INVEST.15kts-NAmb-6.2N-150.8E




以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

adrian

Low

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.3N 150.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 125 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION. A 301122Z MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE
FURTHER SHOWS THE BROAD LLCC WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
POSSIBLE WEAK DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE CURRENT LACK OF
ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

ben811018

ＥＣ跟ＧＦＳ皆有訊號～
後期路徑可留意！

ben811018

副高強度很關鍵...

是這也太強大了@@

ahdeeh

UPGRADED  TO MEDIUM.  

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.9N
146.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.7N 145.5E, APPROXIMATELY 402 NM SOUTH
OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 011148Z PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS AN
ELONGATED LLCC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
DEPICT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT
2 TO 3 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

ben811018

EC這報進入巴士海峽
北方有槽東移~副高呈南北向
有機會將92往北推更靠近台灣
當然~時間還久~變動還很大!




GFS路徑~
跟EC差異不小呢..
究竟誰會勝出呢?
繼續看下去!