t02436

  熱帶低壓  
   編號：11-20142015 ( 15 S )    
   名稱：無



  基本資料     
擾動編號日期：2015 年 03 月 03 日 23 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 03 月 11 日 15 時
登陸地點　　：馬達加斯加

  巔峰時期資料  
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
    法國氣象局 (MFR)：30 kt
    美國海軍 (JTWC)  ：35 kt ( TD )
    海平面最低氣壓　 ：998 百帕

  討論帖圖片  
92S.INVEST.15kts.996mb.16.1S.41.5E



以上資料來自：MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

krichard2011

JTWC發佈 TCFA
但對流仍有待加強


REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3S
42.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 42.1E, APPROXIMATELY 385 NM
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST. A
041921Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH WEAK
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING
TOWARDS THE LLCC. A 041923Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION
WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
PARTIALLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK INTO AN AREA OF LOWER VWS
(15-20 KNOT), LEADING TO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.   

Meow

法國還沒編擾動區美國就先編 15S 了，報文也沒寫到為何達到強度。



WTXS31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051200Z --- NEAR 15.9S 42.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 42.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 16.6S 42.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 17.0S 41.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 17.0S 40.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 16.7S 40.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 16.7S 41.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 17.3S 43.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 19.0S 46.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 42.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 393 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH ASSOCIATED PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION, MOSTLY ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. A 051009Z GCOM 36 GHZ IMAGE CLEARLY
DEPICTS LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH THE
91 GHZ SHOWING THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY AND ANIMATION WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (30 TO 40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM AND AVERAGE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, HOWEVER,
ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED
EAST OF MADAGASCAR. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY TRACK TO THE WEST AS
A FINGER OF THE STR EXTENDS IN THROUGH CENTRAL MADAGASCAR. BEYOND
TAU 48, THE STR WILL RETREAT TO THE EAST, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
TRACK IN THAT DIRECTION. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 96, EXPECT TC 15S TO
IMPACT THE BEMARAHA PLATEAU BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE MADAGASCAR
RANGE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO DOES NOT HAVE
THE STR EXTEND THROUGH MADAGASCAR, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK TO
THE EAST BY TAU 36 AND INTO ISLAND NATION AS EARLY AS TAU 48. DUE TO
THE VERY LARGE SPREAD IN THE LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060300Z AND 061500Z.//
NNNN

t02436

MFR編號第十一號熱帶低壓
預測將以強烈熱帶風暴等級登陸馬達加斯加

** WTIO30 FMEE 060709 ***

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/11/20142015
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION  11

2.A POSITION 2015/03/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 41.7 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE    DECIMAL
SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70




7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/03/06 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 41.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2015/03/07 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 40.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2015/03/07 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 40.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
48H: 2015/03/08 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 41.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/03/08 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 41.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2015/03/09 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 43.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/03/10 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 46.7 E, MAX WIND=000 , INLAND
120H: 2015/03/11 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 50.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5

THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS CLEARLY IMPROVED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AND
SHOWS A TENDENCY TO ORGANIZE.
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS, AND TO GO BACK TOWARDS THE CENTRE OF THE
CHANNEL ON SATURDAY EVENING, A WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY STEERING FLOW
BUILDING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE.
AT THE MOMENT, THERE IS MODERATE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE (WITH A
WEAKNESS OF THE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE POLEWARD, AND A WEAKNESS IN THE
MONSOON INFLOW BETWEEN 05S AND 10S). THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS
FAVORABLE.
THE UPPER LEVEL THE RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED NEAR 20S, AND THE UPPER
LEVEL EAST-SOUTH-EASTERLY WINDSHEAR IS MODERATE (8.6 M/S ACCORDING TO
THE CIMSS).
ON SATURDAY, THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM OWING TO A MONSOON SURGE AND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING AWAY FROM THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST. BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT WILL REMAIN MODERATE.
ON SUNDAY, THE LLCC IS CONTINUING TOWARDS THE CENTRE OF THE CHANNEL
AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SHIFTING NORTHWARD.THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING, AND THE LOW IS LIKELY TO DEEPEN MORE
CLEARLY.
ACCORDING TO THE PRESENT FORECAST, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MAKE A
LANDFALL ON MONDAY ON THE CENTRAL WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR AT THE
STAGE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM.
THIS SYSTEM IS THREATENING THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST BETWEEN 14S AND 18S
OWING TO THE HIGH CUMULATED RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.FROM
MONDAY, IT WILL THREATEN THE WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR BETWEEN 15S
AND 20S.=

  

t02436

受到風切影響
MFR降格熱帶擾動
JTWC已對15S發出FW

MFR發出最後一報
認為將不會成為熱帶風暴
登陸馬島後即消散

** WTIO30 FMEE 071337 ***

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/11/20142015
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE  11

2.A POSITION 2015/03/07 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 40.7 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY    DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/03/08 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 41.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
24H: 2015/03/08 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 42.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
36H: 2015/03/09 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 44.9 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING




2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=1.5, CI=1.5

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THIS MORNING WITH A CENTER
FULLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE HIGHLY FLUCTUATING CONVECTION.

ON SATURDAY EVENING, A WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST
TO BUILD ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GO BACK TOWARDS EAST-SOUTH-EAST AND
TO ACCELERATE.

THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION, ACCORDING TO THE VICINITY OF THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTS,
AND TO THE MODERATE EAST-SOUTH-EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDSHEAR.
THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS FAVORABLE.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION BEFORE
LANDFALL, LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT IT APPEAR SMALL
ENOUGH FOR NOT BEING REFLECTED IN THIS FORECAST.

LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.=